I was curious how hard it is to create artifacts as a Terrestrial, so I decided to figure out some averages.

A maxed-out dragon blood with no charms will roll 19 dice (5 attribute, 5 ability, 1 specialty, 6 excellency, 2 stunt).

Average .5 successes per die = 9.5 successes = 5.5 successes towards the goal per interval.

At 6 intervals this will be 33 successes - enough to mostly make artifact 2s but little chance at artifact 3

Up to 6 points of willpower can be spent for successes, and stunts can add up to 12 successes - theoretically bringing the total to 51 if you can reliably get 3-point stunts and are willing to spend a lot of willpower. I guess if you get that many 3-point stunts willpower isn't at a premium.

Flawless Facet Realization rerolls (essence) dice which were originally non-1 failures. At an average of 9.5 non-1 failures this should be close to (essence) extra dice.

Strike the Dragon-Anvil grants double 9s.

So, with both of these at essence 2, this is effectively 21 dice at .6 successes/die = 12.6 successes per roll, 8.6 adding to the goal = 51.6 total successes - just enough to average artifact 3

At essence 3, Flawless Facet Realization adds an extra die (effectively .6*6 = 3.6 more successes), and you can get a signature charm. The air and water charms don't add successes, but

Eternal Omphalos Forge adds 1 terminus = effectively an extra 13.2 successes for a total of 68.4, with up to 7 from willpower and 14 from stunts

Blazing Dragon-Smith Arete adds (essence) non-charm dice, but loses a terminus. This gets you to 25 dice at .6 successes/die = 15 successes = 11 to goal = 55 successes average, plus 5 and 10 from willpower and stunts.

Imago-Hatching Realization rerolls all non-1 failures. The ordering of this and Flawless Facet Realization is tricky. I'll be making the conservative assumption that FFR happens first. This gets to 19 dice, rolling 11.4 successes and 9.5 non-1 failures. FFR gets to 13.2 successes, 8 non-1 failures. IHR gets to 18 successes, = 14 to goal = 84 total, plus 6 and 12 from willpower and stunts. (Calculations below suggest the order only changes 1-2 successes).

Essence 4 gets an extra die re-rolled by Flawless Facet Realization, and an extra die from Blazing Dragon-Smith Arete if that was chosen as the signature. A total of 4.2 successes for EOF, 6 successes for BDSA, and 1.8 successes for IHR.

At essence 5, we unlock an upgrade to Strike the Dragon-Anvil, and a second Signature Charm

Without using signatures or spending wxp on Strike the Dragon Anvil, you get 24 dice, .6 successes/die, difficulty 5, terminus 6 = 62.4 total successes, plus stunts/willpower

Earth+Fire = 29 dice, at .7 successes per die, at a difficulty of 4 and a terminus of 6 = 97.8 successes, plus stunts/willpower

Earth+Wood = 19 dice, initial 13.3 successes and 9.5 non-1 failures, FFR to 16.8 success and 7 non-1 failures, IHR to 21.7 successes = 123.9 total successes, plus stunts/willpower

Fire+Wood = 24 dice, initial 16.8 successes and 12 non-1 failures, FFR to 20.3 success and 9.5 non-1 failures. IHR to 26.95 success = 114.75 total successes, plus stunts/willpower

To figure out what you need to make an artifact - you'll generally want to go past these bars to make a given artifact reliably.

Artifact 2 can be done on average with maxed stats and the excellency

Artifact 3 can be done on average with 2 essence 2 charms.

Artifact 4 can be done on average with Eternal Omphalos Forge and a willpower every roll, or Imago-Hatching Realization be used on most rolls.

Artifact 5 can be done on average only at essence 5, though the exact combination of effects necessary to use is more complicated than I care to compute.

Trying to get a more elegant model of combining FFR and IHR.

Dice = x;

Successes/die = s

Essence = e

First round gets x*s successes, x/2 non-1 failures.

Second round gets x*s+e*s = successes, and (x/2)-(e/2) non-1 failures

Third round gets x*s+e*s+x*s/2-e*s/2 successes = 3x*s/2+e*s/2 successes = (3x+e)*(s/2) successes.

X is 19 with full stats, full excellency and a stunt, 24 if we add Blazing Dragon-Smith Arete (which can only be combined with IHR at essence 5)

S is .5 with no charms, .6 with Strike the Dragon Anvil, .7 with the upgrade

At e3, this leads to (3*19+3)*(.3) = 18 successes/roll

At e5, this leads to (3*19+5)*(.35) = 21.6 successes/roll

At e5 with BDSA this leads to (3*24+5)*(.35) = 26.95 successes/roll

If they can happen in the opposite order

Dice = x;

Successes/die = s

Essence = e

First round gets x*s successes, x/2 non-1 failures.

Second round gets x*s+x*s/2 = successes, and x/4 non-1 failures

Third round gets the 3sx/2 + s*min(x/4, e). Technically because of randomness the actual average is less than this, but I don't want to do the work of actually calculating it.

At e3, this leads to .6((3*19)/2+(3)) = 18.9 successes/roll

At e5, this leads to .7((3*19)/2+19/4)= 23.275 successes/roll

At e5 with BDSA this leads to .7(3*24/2+5) = 28.7 successes/roll

A maxed-out dragon blood with no charms will roll 19 dice (5 attribute, 5 ability, 1 specialty, 6 excellency, 2 stunt).

Average .5 successes per die = 9.5 successes = 5.5 successes towards the goal per interval.

At 6 intervals this will be 33 successes - enough to mostly make artifact 2s but little chance at artifact 3

Up to 6 points of willpower can be spent for successes, and stunts can add up to 12 successes - theoretically bringing the total to 51 if you can reliably get 3-point stunts and are willing to spend a lot of willpower. I guess if you get that many 3-point stunts willpower isn't at a premium.

Flawless Facet Realization rerolls (essence) dice which were originally non-1 failures. At an average of 9.5 non-1 failures this should be close to (essence) extra dice.

Strike the Dragon-Anvil grants double 9s.

So, with both of these at essence 2, this is effectively 21 dice at .6 successes/die = 12.6 successes per roll, 8.6 adding to the goal = 51.6 total successes - just enough to average artifact 3

At essence 3, Flawless Facet Realization adds an extra die (effectively .6*6 = 3.6 more successes), and you can get a signature charm. The air and water charms don't add successes, but

Eternal Omphalos Forge adds 1 terminus = effectively an extra 13.2 successes for a total of 68.4, with up to 7 from willpower and 14 from stunts

Blazing Dragon-Smith Arete adds (essence) non-charm dice, but loses a terminus. This gets you to 25 dice at .6 successes/die = 15 successes = 11 to goal = 55 successes average, plus 5 and 10 from willpower and stunts.

Imago-Hatching Realization rerolls all non-1 failures. The ordering of this and Flawless Facet Realization is tricky. I'll be making the conservative assumption that FFR happens first. This gets to 19 dice, rolling 11.4 successes and 9.5 non-1 failures. FFR gets to 13.2 successes, 8 non-1 failures. IHR gets to 18 successes, = 14 to goal = 84 total, plus 6 and 12 from willpower and stunts. (Calculations below suggest the order only changes 1-2 successes).

Essence 4 gets an extra die re-rolled by Flawless Facet Realization, and an extra die from Blazing Dragon-Smith Arete if that was chosen as the signature. A total of 4.2 successes for EOF, 6 successes for BDSA, and 1.8 successes for IHR.

At essence 5, we unlock an upgrade to Strike the Dragon-Anvil, and a second Signature Charm

Without using signatures or spending wxp on Strike the Dragon Anvil, you get 24 dice, .6 successes/die, difficulty 5, terminus 6 = 62.4 total successes, plus stunts/willpower

Earth+Fire = 29 dice, at .7 successes per die, at a difficulty of 4 and a terminus of 6 = 97.8 successes, plus stunts/willpower

Earth+Wood = 19 dice, initial 13.3 successes and 9.5 non-1 failures, FFR to 16.8 success and 7 non-1 failures, IHR to 21.7 successes = 123.9 total successes, plus stunts/willpower

Fire+Wood = 24 dice, initial 16.8 successes and 12 non-1 failures, FFR to 20.3 success and 9.5 non-1 failures. IHR to 26.95 success = 114.75 total successes, plus stunts/willpower

To figure out what you need to make an artifact - you'll generally want to go past these bars to make a given artifact reliably.

Artifact 2 can be done on average with maxed stats and the excellency

Artifact 3 can be done on average with 2 essence 2 charms.

Artifact 4 can be done on average with Eternal Omphalos Forge and a willpower every roll, or Imago-Hatching Realization be used on most rolls.

Artifact 5 can be done on average only at essence 5, though the exact combination of effects necessary to use is more complicated than I care to compute.

Trying to get a more elegant model of combining FFR and IHR.

Dice = x;

Successes/die = s

Essence = e

First round gets x*s successes, x/2 non-1 failures.

Second round gets x*s+e*s = successes, and (x/2)-(e/2) non-1 failures

Third round gets x*s+e*s+x*s/2-e*s/2 successes = 3x*s/2+e*s/2 successes = (3x+e)*(s/2) successes.

X is 19 with full stats, full excellency and a stunt, 24 if we add Blazing Dragon-Smith Arete (which can only be combined with IHR at essence 5)

S is .5 with no charms, .6 with Strike the Dragon Anvil, .7 with the upgrade

At e3, this leads to (3*19+3)*(.3) = 18 successes/roll

At e5, this leads to (3*19+5)*(.35) = 21.6 successes/roll

At e5 with BDSA this leads to (3*24+5)*(.35) = 26.95 successes/roll

If they can happen in the opposite order

Dice = x;

Successes/die = s

Essence = e

First round gets x*s successes, x/2 non-1 failures.

Second round gets x*s+x*s/2 = successes, and x/4 non-1 failures

Third round gets the 3sx/2 + s*min(x/4, e). Technically because of randomness the actual average is less than this, but I don't want to do the work of actually calculating it.

At e3, this leads to .6((3*19)/2+(3)) = 18.9 successes/roll

At e5, this leads to .7((3*19)/2+19/4)= 23.275 successes/roll

At e5 with BDSA this leads to .7(3*24/2+5) = 28.7 successes/roll

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