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Lunar Craft Probabilities

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  • autXautY
    started a topic Lunar Craft Probabilities

    Lunar Craft Probabilities

    This is an attempt to calculate a Lunar's probability of successfully crafting different levels of artifice with different amounts of charms.
    All probabilities are calculated using anydice
    The following assumptions are made
    The lunar has Craft(something) 5
    The lunar has Craft(artifact) 5
    The lunar has an applicable craft specialty
    The lunar has an craft attribute at 5, and another stuntable excellency at 5
    The lunar spends a full excellency (10) and a willpower each roll
    The lunar achieves a 1-point stunt each roll
    Motes, willpower, craft xp, materials and time are not limited in any way

    Calculation was done by treating all the intervals as a single roll, multiplying the number of dice per roll by 6 (or 8 at essence 5), then comparing to [(difficulty of artifact)+24(32) for difficulty of 6(8) rolls-6(8) for willpower.]

    With no charms: 99.77% chance of crafting a 2-dot artifact, 57.01% chance of 3-dot, .19% chance of 4-dot
    With Wonder-Weaving Art: 95.05% chance of 3-dot, 15.13% chance of 4-dot, .02% chance of 5-dot
    With Wonder-Weaving Artx2 and Silver Crucible Refinement (essence 2): 99.98% chance of 3-dot, 87.2% chance of 4-dot, 12.9% chance of 5-dot
    With Wonder-Weaving Artx2 and Silver Crucible Refinement (essence 3): 99.99% chance of 3-dot, 93.27% chance of 4-dot, 22.92% chance of 5-dot
    With Wonder-Weaving Artx3 and Silver Crucible Refinement (essence 4): 99.86% chance of 4-dot, 84.39% chance of 5-dot:
    With Wonder-Weaving Artx3, Silver Crucible Refinement (essence 5), and Unbound Demiurge's Dream: .15% chance of NA.

    When no probability is listed, it is either >99.99% or <.01%

    At Essence >5, the chance of making a NA artifact is
    6: .64%
    7: 24.66%
    8: 40.67%
    9: 57.95%
    10: 97.61%

    Overall, it seems like lunars can quickly get to the point they don't worry about failing 2/3 dot artifacts, and 4-dot artifacts are doable but have a chance of failing. Only at essence 4 do they have a >50% chance of 5-dots, and only at essence 5 do they have a >.01% chance of NA, which is still only .15%. It's only at Essence 7 when Unbound Demiurge's Dream lets you make 9 rolls for a project that NA becomes plausible, and I'm not sure if any essence 7 lunars exist, let alone craft-specialized ones. Which is probably a good thing for the setting. (Ignore the fact that doing so would cost 183m, 30wp, 185wxp, and 10 years, for what is still only a 24.66% chance of success).

  • The Wizard of Oz
    replied
    Originally posted by BrilliantRain View Post

    And I’m fine with that. It’s a thing that shows “these guys are hella old, powerful, and dangerous” which is fine. I just don’t think that publishing an Essence 7 exalt is helpful or necessary, since it conveys basically the same info as Essence 6, but makes it look like we’re headed back to the days when essence 6 to 10 charms were things and essence 5, instead of being “I am an elder heroic bad ass” became “eh, come back when you’re out of the tutorial, kid.”
    Yeah, that's fair. I don't see a particular reason why Raksi should be much more powerful than Ma-Ha-Suchi.

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  • BrilliantRain
    replied
    Originally posted by The Wizard of Oz View Post
    TBH, I like the fact they're Essence 6 and the benefit is just slightly more motes and a single fancy charm, because it shows you that Essence 6 exalts are primarily powerful because of their extensive experience, rather than cap-busting OP-ness.
    And I’m fine with that. It’s a thing that shows “these guys are hella old, powerful, and dangerous” which is fine. I just don’t think that publishing an Essence 7 exalt is helpful or necessary, since it conveys basically the same info as Essence 6, but makes it look like we’re headed back to the days when essence 6 to 10 charms were things and essence 5, instead of being “I am an elder heroic bad ass” became “eh, come back when you’re out of the tutorial, kid.”

    Leave a comment:


  • The Wizard of Oz
    replied
    TBH, I like the fact they're Essence 6 and the benefit is just slightly more motes and a single fancy charm, because it shows you that Essence 6 exalts are primarily powerful because of their extensive experience, rather than cap-busting OP-ness.

    Leave a comment:


  • Hark
    replied
    Once upon a time the idea was there was no Essence cap until Essence 10, but the dev team had no intention of supporting play as anything beyond 5. If they ever did anything involving actually playing as an Elder Exalt, Essence 6+, they would build a new system around the idea of playing Elder Exalts. That was a different dev team though.

    Leave a comment:


  • Mizu
    replied
    Originally posted by BrilliantRain View Post

    I really hope they walk that back. Giving Exalted a hardish cap at Essence 5 and an actual hard cap at Essence 6 and no cap busting or anything feels like an important part of the balance for this edition.
    Hard cap? I recall there being a 'most elder exalts don't have time to undergo the amount of training needed to advance to elder essence' cap but not a hard cap.

    Leave a comment:


  • Kunoichi
    replied
    I'd guess it's just a specialty and exceptional equipment of some sort.

    Leave a comment:


  • BrilliantRain
    replied
    Originally posted by Speedbump View Post
    As of the latest preview, it appears that Raksi is actually E7, while Lilith and Ma-Ha-Suchi are E6. They don't appear to have abilities or attributes above 5, with the possible exception of Lilith's Social Influence and Conceal Evidence/Tracks pools, which are at 12. I'm inclined to stick that down to the vaguaries of quick character stats rather than anything else.
    I really hope they walk that back. Giving Exalted a hardish cap at Essence 5 and an actual hard cap at Essence 6 and no cap busting or anything feels like an important part of the balance for this edition.

    Leave a comment:


  • Speedbump
    replied
    As of the latest preview, it appears that Raksi is actually E7, while Lilith and Ma-Ha-Suchi are E6. They don't appear to have abilities or attributes above 5, with the possible exception of Lilith's Social Influence and Conceal Evidence/Tracks pools, which are at 12. I'm inclined to stick that down to the vaguaries of quick character stats rather than anything else.

    Leave a comment:


  • BrilliantRain
    replied
    Some Elders can apparently hit essence 6, but that's mostly reserved for people like Chejop or Raksi who are multiple thousands of years old and it tends not to grant them anything appreciably cooler than the stuff you already get. IIrc, the Scarlet Empress was apparently the only essence 6 DB in pretty much the entire history of the Realm.

    Otherwise,the Exalted cap out at essence 5 and spirits cap out at essence 10.

    That said, for charms that key off essence, it can be interesting to look at the progression curve all the way to 10, just to see what it looks like. I mean, it's interesting to know that even if a DB managed to climb to essence 10, they still wouldn't have a chance of building that N/A artifact.

    Leave a comment:


  • autXautY
    replied
    Originally posted by Epimetheus View Post
    I do have to ask, Are we assuming that exalted have attribute/ability caps past 5? I 'm just wondering if that'll still be a thing.
    I am assuming that the cap remains at 5. The boost is somewhat from Silver Crucible Refinement giving +essence dice, and the jumps are from Unbound Demiurge's Dream giving an extra roll

    Leave a comment:


  • The Wizard of Oz
    replied
    I find it depends how good the character's dice pool is; in our fight on Sunday's game, I was adding 8 dice to every attack, but that's because I only had 5 dice for decisive attacks (due to magical darkness).

    Whereas normally I'll just add 4 dice to rolls, so as not to flare. When you've already got 10 dice, it's just not necessary for most things. Certainly not worth flaring.

    It also depends on whether the roll is one in downtime or the main session, as you'll get back motes in downtime.
    (Although I spent a month of downtime with my Lunar doctor treating 10 people a day; I saved my motes for surgery. With 10 dice for Int+Medicine, you hardly need an excellency to treat a rash.)

    Leave a comment:


  • TheCountAlucard
    replied
    Originally posted by Meianno Yuurei View Post
    If you're demanding a 2-point, you're demanding too much; using two attributes on the excellency is a Lunar's bread and butter, not their 5-10% of rolls.
    If they're particularly feeling like going all-out, anyway. The last couple of characters I've played, adding more than five dice to a roll was 5-10% of rolls.

    Leave a comment:


  • The Wizard of Oz
    replied
    Originally posted by Clophiroth View Post
    I had no idea DB´s chances of making an NA were so absurdly low :O
    I think that's pretty reasonable, from a setting perspective; after the Solars died, N/A artefact production was pretty much gone.

    Leave a comment:


  • Epimetheus
    replied
    Originally posted by autXautY View Post

    At Essence >5, the chance of making a NA artifact is
    6: .64%
    7: 24.66%
    8: 40.67%
    9: 57.95%
    10: 97.61%
    I do have to ask, Are we assuming that exalted have attribute/ability caps past 5? I 'm just wondering if that'll still be a thing.

    Leave a comment:

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