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Lunar Craft Probabilities

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  • Lunar Craft Probabilities

    This is an attempt to calculate a Lunar's probability of successfully crafting different levels of artifice with different amounts of charms.
    All probabilities are calculated using anydice
    The following assumptions are made
    The lunar has Craft(something) 5
    The lunar has Craft(artifact) 5
    The lunar has an applicable craft specialty
    The lunar has an craft attribute at 5, and another stuntable excellency at 5
    The lunar spends a full excellency (10) and a willpower each roll
    The lunar achieves a 1-point stunt each roll
    Motes, willpower, craft xp, materials and time are not limited in any way

    Calculation was done by treating all the intervals as a single roll, multiplying the number of dice per roll by 6 (or 8 at essence 5), then comparing to [(difficulty of artifact)+24(32) for difficulty of 6(8) rolls-6(8) for willpower.]

    With no charms: 99.77% chance of crafting a 2-dot artifact, 57.01% chance of 3-dot, .19% chance of 4-dot
    With Wonder-Weaving Art: 95.05% chance of 3-dot, 15.13% chance of 4-dot, .02% chance of 5-dot
    With Wonder-Weaving Artx2 and Silver Crucible Refinement (essence 2): 99.98% chance of 3-dot, 87.2% chance of 4-dot, 12.9% chance of 5-dot
    With Wonder-Weaving Artx2 and Silver Crucible Refinement (essence 3): 99.99% chance of 3-dot, 93.27% chance of 4-dot, 22.92% chance of 5-dot
    With Wonder-Weaving Artx3 and Silver Crucible Refinement (essence 4): 99.86% chance of 4-dot, 84.39% chance of 5-dot:
    With Wonder-Weaving Artx3, Silver Crucible Refinement (essence 5), and Unbound Demiurge's Dream: .15% chance of NA.

    When no probability is listed, it is either >99.99% or <.01%

    At Essence >5, the chance of making a NA artifact is
    6: .64%
    7: 24.66%
    8: 40.67%
    9: 57.95%
    10: 97.61%

    Overall, it seems like lunars can quickly get to the point they don't worry about failing 2/3 dot artifacts, and 4-dot artifacts are doable but have a chance of failing. Only at essence 4 do they have a >50% chance of 5-dots, and only at essence 5 do they have a >.01% chance of NA, which is still only .15%. It's only at Essence 7 when Unbound Demiurge's Dream lets you make 9 rolls for a project that NA becomes plausible, and I'm not sure if any essence 7 lunars exist, let alone craft-specialized ones. Which is probably a good thing for the setting. (Ignore the fact that doing so would cost 183m, 30wp, 185wxp, and 10 years, for what is still only a 24.66% chance of success).

  • #2
    Thanks, that's very useful.


    My characters:
    Dr Soma Vaidya, viper-totem Lunar and kung-fu doctor
    Brother Alazar, Zenith occultist and last survivor of the Black Monastery of Leng
    Shadow of Kings, Twilight barbarian scholar, master of lost First Age crafting techniques. Has a lot of clones. Picture by Jen.

    Comment


    • #3
      Thanks for this. I was afraid I might have to do the math myself.

      Has anyone done Craft probability analyses for the other splats? I did some brief calculations once because I was curious whether Dragon-Blooded could actually make daiklaves in 3e (my conclusion was that an Essence 5 DB with every relevant trait maxed out and every Craft Charm in the book, including Eternal Omphalos Forge and Imago-Hatching Realization, did have a better-than-even chance of successfully forging a 3-dot artifact), but I didn't get into this level of analysis.

      Comment


      • #4
        I believe it was done before, somewhere on the forum.


        My characters:
        Dr Soma Vaidya, viper-totem Lunar and kung-fu doctor
        Brother Alazar, Zenith occultist and last survivor of the Black Monastery of Leng
        Shadow of Kings, Twilight barbarian scholar, master of lost First Age crafting techniques. Has a lot of clones. Picture by Jen.

        Comment


        • #5
          I did an averages calculation for dragon bloods, though not probabilities and also using an interpretation of a charm that I think the later version ruled out. I believe someone else did a full probabilities as well.

          Comment


          • #6
            In order to use the full excellency, don't they need a two point stunt?


            Thoughts ripple out, birthing others

            Comment


            • #7
              I believe it's just "a stunt".


              My characters:
              Dr Soma Vaidya, viper-totem Lunar and kung-fu doctor
              Brother Alazar, Zenith occultist and last survivor of the Black Monastery of Leng
              Shadow of Kings, Twilight barbarian scholar, master of lost First Age crafting techniques. Has a lot of clones. Picture by Jen.

              Comment


              • #8
                So this method is probably a bit inaccurate because it doesn't take it treats failed rolls as still adding on to the total, but the difference is only pronounced with low dice pools. But it is a lot easier to do and probably pretty close to reality. Here's a break down of Dragonblooded Craft using the same method:

                Essence 1(Just excellency): 98.12% chance of a 2 dot, 7.36% chance of a 3 dot
                Essence 2(Flawless Facet Realization & Strike the Dragon-Anvil): 81.57% 3 dot, 3.19% 4 dot
                Essence 3(Eternal Omphalos Forge): 98.80% 3 dot, 37.37% 4 dot, 0.29% 5 Dot
                Essence 4(EOF): 99.59% 3 dot, 53.87% 4 dot, 1.04% 5 Dot
                Essence 5(StDA repurchase, Blazing Dragon-Smith Arete): 99.92% 4 dot, 84.96% 5 dot

                Mostly just a step or two behind Lunars at a given essence. Only once the second Signature kicks in do they reach the point where they can reasonably expect to make a 5 dot artifact. Elder essence doesn't make much of a difference, even a hypothetical E10 Dragon Blooded has very long odds:

                Essence 6: 95.35% 5 dot
                Essence 7: 99.52% 5 dot
                Essence 8:99.92% 5 dot
                Essence 9:99.99% 5 dot, 0.02% N/A
                Essence 10: 0.59% N/A

                On the other hand your choice of signature does make a bigger difference:
                Essence 3(Ephemeral Form Composition or Fortune from Flotsam Ingenuity):89.98% 3 dot, 7.58% 4 dot
                Essence 3(Imago-Hatching Realization):97.43% 3 dot, 24.02% 4 dot, 0.06% 5 dot
                Essence 3(Blazing Dragon-Smith Arete):96.44% 3 dot, 17.99% 4 dot, 0.02% 5 dot

                Essence 5(StDA repurchase, EOF, IHR): 99.50% 4 dot, 67.32% 5 dot
                Essence 5(StDA repurchase, BDSA, IHR): 99.74% 4 dot, 76.56% 5 dot

                Comment


                • #9
                  Hey,

                  Just to confirm, did you calculate difficulty as 5 x interval. Then subtract 1 x interval due to willpower?

                  If so it should be 4x instead of 5x. On extended rolls dice that match or exceed difficulty count. 5 successes vs difficulty 5 is 1 threshold success.

                  Edit: ah you did calculate it right. I just read missread what you had written.
                  Last edited by Klaek; 03-11-2019, 05:27 PM.

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                  • #10
                    Hmm. It's interesting but of course, custom charms can effect this difficulty quite a bit.
                    Last edited by Epimetheus; 03-11-2019, 05:31 PM.

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                    • #11
                      I had no idea DB´s chances of making an NA were so absurdly low :O

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by FallenEco View Post
                        In order to use the full excellency, don't they need a two point stunt?
                        No. The book itself encourages leniency on it, in fact.

                        Originally posted by Lunars Manuscript
                        Excellency text:
                        However, a Lunar can increase her dice cap with stunts, adding her rating in a second Attribute — one appropriate to the stunt — to her rating in the one the action uses to determine her total dice limit.

                        Stunts and Storytelling sidebar:
                        The use of stunts in Lunar Excellencies warrants some Storyteller guidance. The stunt requirement isn’t meant to be overly restrictive — as long as the player’s description of how they work a second Attribute into their action makes sense, it’s valid. Storytellers should be generous in assessing this, especially with players who’re unfamiliar or uncomfortable with stunting.
                        ]
                        If you're demanding a 2-point, you're demanding too much; using two attributes on the excellency is a Lunar's bread and butter, not their 5-10% of rolls.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          My apologies


                          Thoughts ripple out, birthing others

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by autXautY View Post

                            At Essence >5, the chance of making a NA artifact is
                            6: .64%
                            7: 24.66%
                            8: 40.67%
                            9: 57.95%
                            10: 97.61%
                            I do have to ask, Are we assuming that exalted have attribute/ability caps past 5? I 'm just wondering if that'll still be a thing.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Clophiroth View Post
                              I had no idea DB´s chances of making an NA were so absurdly low :O
                              I think that's pretty reasonable, from a setting perspective; after the Solars died, N/A artefact production was pretty much gone.


                              My characters:
                              Dr Soma Vaidya, viper-totem Lunar and kung-fu doctor
                              Brother Alazar, Zenith occultist and last survivor of the Black Monastery of Leng
                              Shadow of Kings, Twilight barbarian scholar, master of lost First Age crafting techniques. Has a lot of clones. Picture by Jen.

                              Comment

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