This is an attempt to calculate a Lunar's probability of successfully crafting different levels of artifice with different amounts of charms.

All probabilities are calculated using anydice

The following assumptions are made

The lunar has Craft(something) 5

The lunar has Craft(artifact) 5

The lunar has an applicable craft specialty

The lunar has an craft attribute at 5, and another stuntable excellency at 5

The lunar spends a full excellency (10) and a willpower each roll

The lunar achieves a 1-point stunt each roll

Motes, willpower, craft xp, materials and time are not limited in any way

Calculation was done by treating all the intervals as a single roll, multiplying the number of dice per roll by 6 (or 8 at essence 5), then comparing to [(difficulty of artifact)+24(32) for difficulty of 6(8) rolls-6(8) for willpower.]

With no charms: 99.77% chance of crafting a 2-dot artifact, 57.01% chance of 3-dot, .19% chance of 4-dot

With Wonder-Weaving Art: 95.05% chance of 3-dot, 15.13% chance of 4-dot, .02% chance of 5-dot

With Wonder-Weaving Artx2 and Silver Crucible Refinement (essence 2): 99.98% chance of 3-dot, 87.2% chance of 4-dot, 12.9% chance of 5-dot

With Wonder-Weaving Artx2 and Silver Crucible Refinement (essence 3): 99.99% chance of 3-dot, 93.27% chance of 4-dot, 22.92% chance of 5-dot

With Wonder-Weaving Artx3 and Silver Crucible Refinement (essence 4): 99.86% chance of 4-dot, 84.39% chance of 5-dot:

With Wonder-Weaving Artx3, Silver Crucible Refinement (essence 5), and Unbound Demiurge's Dream: .15% chance of NA.

When no probability is listed, it is either >99.99% or <.01%

At Essence >5, the chance of making a NA artifact is

6: .64%

7: 24.66%

8: 40.67%

9: 57.95%

10: 97.61%

Overall, it seems like lunars can quickly get to the point they don't worry about failing 2/3 dot artifacts, and 4-dot artifacts are doable but have a chance of failing. Only at essence 4 do they have a >50% chance of 5-dots, and only at essence 5 do they have a >.01% chance of NA, which is still only .15%. It's only at Essence 7 when Unbound Demiurge's Dream lets you make 9 rolls for a project that NA becomes plausible, and I'm not sure if any essence 7 lunars exist, let alone craft-specialized ones. Which is probably a good thing for the setting. (Ignore the fact that doing so would cost 183m, 30wp, 185wxp, and 10 years, for what is still only a 24.66% chance of success).

All probabilities are calculated using anydice

The following assumptions are made

The lunar has Craft(something) 5

The lunar has Craft(artifact) 5

The lunar has an applicable craft specialty

The lunar has an craft attribute at 5, and another stuntable excellency at 5

The lunar spends a full excellency (10) and a willpower each roll

The lunar achieves a 1-point stunt each roll

Motes, willpower, craft xp, materials and time are not limited in any way

Calculation was done by treating all the intervals as a single roll, multiplying the number of dice per roll by 6 (or 8 at essence 5), then comparing to [(difficulty of artifact)+24(32) for difficulty of 6(8) rolls-6(8) for willpower.]

With no charms: 99.77% chance of crafting a 2-dot artifact, 57.01% chance of 3-dot, .19% chance of 4-dot

With Wonder-Weaving Art: 95.05% chance of 3-dot, 15.13% chance of 4-dot, .02% chance of 5-dot

With Wonder-Weaving Artx2 and Silver Crucible Refinement (essence 2): 99.98% chance of 3-dot, 87.2% chance of 4-dot, 12.9% chance of 5-dot

With Wonder-Weaving Artx2 and Silver Crucible Refinement (essence 3): 99.99% chance of 3-dot, 93.27% chance of 4-dot, 22.92% chance of 5-dot

With Wonder-Weaving Artx3 and Silver Crucible Refinement (essence 4): 99.86% chance of 4-dot, 84.39% chance of 5-dot:

With Wonder-Weaving Artx3, Silver Crucible Refinement (essence 5), and Unbound Demiurge's Dream: .15% chance of NA.

When no probability is listed, it is either >99.99% or <.01%

At Essence >5, the chance of making a NA artifact is

6: .64%

7: 24.66%

8: 40.67%

9: 57.95%

10: 97.61%

Overall, it seems like lunars can quickly get to the point they don't worry about failing 2/3 dot artifacts, and 4-dot artifacts are doable but have a chance of failing. Only at essence 4 do they have a >50% chance of 5-dots, and only at essence 5 do they have a >.01% chance of NA, which is still only .15%. It's only at Essence 7 when Unbound Demiurge's Dream lets you make 9 rolls for a project that NA becomes plausible, and I'm not sure if any essence 7 lunars exist, let alone craft-specialized ones. Which is probably a good thing for the setting. (Ignore the fact that doing so would cost 183m, 30wp, 185wxp, and 10 years, for what is still only a 24.66% chance of success).

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