I was doing a bunch of calculations and estimates re. Dragonblooded demographics, and wanted to post them. Not sure if they’re useful for anything - a bunch of them have to do with secondary schools.

From the Book: There are 25,000 dbs alive - 10,000 dynasts, 4,000 dynastic outcastes, 1000 patricians and cadets, 10,000 from outside the Realm.

From the Book: Most of the Real’s Exalted die before their hundredth birthday.

Assumption: The mean DB lives, as a DB, for roughly 75 years. This is based on the hundredth birthday fact, plus the fact that the tail of long lives is much longer than the tail of short lives. If you think this number should be different, you’ll need to adjust the other numbers to match.

Assumption: The DB population is stable-ish. The number of DBs who are born and die each year are close to each other, even if the population is slowly growing or shrinking.

Calculation: The number of DBs born and dying each year must be roughly (total DB population)/(mean lifespan as a DB). That is, 133 Dynasts/year, 53 Realm Outcastes/Year, 13 Other Realm/Year, 133 Other/Year, for 333/year total.

Alternate Calculation - A pair of DBs is expected to have a child between every 12 and 20 years in the Realm. Using the low end of that to account for older DBs who’ve already have 5 kids, unmarried DBs, infertile DBs or ones in marriages that can’t produce children, etc, that’s an average of 1 child for every 40 DBs every year. A DB of average pedigree can expect half of these children to Exalt, ie 1 exalt per 80 DBs every year. This doesn’t include lost eggs and such, so I’d guess this estimates more like 1/60 overall, which isn’t too far off from the other number.

I originally was trying to estimate the total number of DBs the Silver Pact is killing. Assuming they account for a third of the deaths of Realm DBs, they’re killing 67 DBs/Year. Which I think implies a relatively small fraction of Lunars are actively involved in the war with the Realm.

On Secondary Schools:

From the Book: Secondary School in the Realm lasts 7 years

Calculation: There are roughly 1400 secondary school aged DBs in the realm - 933 Dynasts, 373 Outcastes, 93 other

From the Book: No more than a few dozen students are enrolled in the Heptagram at any given time. Hundreds of students are in the House of Bells. The Spiral Academy is the largest in terms of students. Pasiap’s Stair consists of hundreds of students.

From the Book: Most students are Dragonblooded, but each school does admit some mortal students.

From the Book: All outcastes must either take the coin or the razor, going to either the House of Wisdom or Pasiap’s Stair

Rough Estimates - Around 250 DBs in each of the House of Wisdom, The House of Bells, and Pasiap’s Stair, for 30-40 a year. Around 350 DBs in the Spiral Academy, for 50ish a year. Around 60 DBs in the Heptagram for 9-ish a year. Around 240 students in all lesser secondary schools.

From the Book: There are 25,000 dbs alive - 10,000 dynasts, 4,000 dynastic outcastes, 1000 patricians and cadets, 10,000 from outside the Realm.

From the Book: Most of the Real’s Exalted die before their hundredth birthday.

Assumption: The mean DB lives, as a DB, for roughly 75 years. This is based on the hundredth birthday fact, plus the fact that the tail of long lives is much longer than the tail of short lives. If you think this number should be different, you’ll need to adjust the other numbers to match.

Assumption: The DB population is stable-ish. The number of DBs who are born and die each year are close to each other, even if the population is slowly growing or shrinking.

Calculation: The number of DBs born and dying each year must be roughly (total DB population)/(mean lifespan as a DB). That is, 133 Dynasts/year, 53 Realm Outcastes/Year, 13 Other Realm/Year, 133 Other/Year, for 333/year total.

Alternate Calculation - A pair of DBs is expected to have a child between every 12 and 20 years in the Realm. Using the low end of that to account for older DBs who’ve already have 5 kids, unmarried DBs, infertile DBs or ones in marriages that can’t produce children, etc, that’s an average of 1 child for every 40 DBs every year. A DB of average pedigree can expect half of these children to Exalt, ie 1 exalt per 80 DBs every year. This doesn’t include lost eggs and such, so I’d guess this estimates more like 1/60 overall, which isn’t too far off from the other number.

I originally was trying to estimate the total number of DBs the Silver Pact is killing. Assuming they account for a third of the deaths of Realm DBs, they’re killing 67 DBs/Year. Which I think implies a relatively small fraction of Lunars are actively involved in the war with the Realm.

On Secondary Schools:

From the Book: Secondary School in the Realm lasts 7 years

Calculation: There are roughly 1400 secondary school aged DBs in the realm - 933 Dynasts, 373 Outcastes, 93 other

From the Book: No more than a few dozen students are enrolled in the Heptagram at any given time. Hundreds of students are in the House of Bells. The Spiral Academy is the largest in terms of students. Pasiap’s Stair consists of hundreds of students.

From the Book: Most students are Dragonblooded, but each school does admit some mortal students.

From the Book: All outcastes must either take the coin or the razor, going to either the House of Wisdom or Pasiap’s Stair

Rough Estimates - Around 250 DBs in each of the House of Wisdom, The House of Bells, and Pasiap’s Stair, for 30-40 a year. Around 350 DBs in the Spiral Academy, for 50ish a year. Around 60 DBs in the Heptagram for 9-ish a year. Around 240 students in all lesser secondary schools.

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