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Estimating childhood mortality amongst Dynasts (split from Childbearing duties)

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  • Estimating childhood mortality amongst Dynasts (split from Childbearing duties)

    WARNING: I AM A HUGE GODDAMN NERD

    Over in the childbearing thread, Couch ran some numbers that indincated the Realm should have a mortality rate of around 2%, which is kind of crazy high when applied uniformly.

    My assertion is that you don't need an adulthood mortality level even approaching that, if you account for the dramatically higher childhood mortality rate that has been prevalent through much of history.

    To check this, I wrote a program that simulates Dynastic population growth over time (code in spoiler block below).

    Short form is that, with a childhood mortality rate (Child being defined as 5 years old or younger) of 20%, the other mortality rates tend to basically fall in line with reasonable expectations.

    20% childhood mortality *sounds* really high, but historically (http://historymedren.about.com/od/me...survival_2.htm) is actually somewhat low. Given that we're only looking at the children of dynasts, it being lower is probably reasonable- better access to care and oversight would reduce the deaths due to disease and accidents.


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  • #2
    Censues from RY 168 to 1168 (the earlier years are running off of seeded data and so look a bit wonky; by RY 668 all the initially generated individuals are dead however and so you get a better sense of how the numbers will move)


    Census of RY 168
    Number of children (can potential Exalt): 2072
    Number of dynasts: 9984
    Number of married couples: 4939
    Number of dynasts whom died: 16 (Old age: 0, by chance: 16)
    Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 0
    Number of new marriages: 9
    Number of children born: 0
    ------------------
    Census of RY 218
    Number of children (can potential Exalt): 1921
    Number of dynasts: 11142
    Number of married couples: 5012
    Number of dynasts whom died: 23 (Old age: 13, by chance: 10)
    Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 1
    Number of new marriages: 15
    Number of children born: 64
    ------------------
    Census of RY 268
    Number of children (can potential Exalt): 2165
    Number of dynasts: 11865
    Number of married couples: 5392
    Number of dynasts whom died: 31 (Old age: 14, by chance: 17)
    Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 12
    Number of new marriages: 14
    Number of children born: 83
    ------------------
    Census of RY 318
    Number of children (can potential Exalt): 1956
    Number of dynasts: 12461
    Number of married couples: 5764
    Number of dynasts whom died: 11 (Old age: 3, by chance: 8)
    Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 10
    Number of new marriages: 11
    Number of children born: 151
    ------------------
    Census of RY 368
    Number of children (can potential Exalt): 1692
    Number of dynasts: 13190
    Number of married couples: 6190
    Number of dynasts whom died: 18 (Old age: 0, by chance: 18)
    Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 25
    Number of new marriages: 69
    Number of children born: 223
    ------------------
    Census of RY 418
    Number of children (can potential Exalt): 1753
    Number of dynasts: 13598
    Number of married couples: 6349
    Number of dynasts whom died: 42 (Old age: 19, by chance: 23)
    Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 17
    Number of new marriages: 16
    Number of children born: 124
    ------------------
    Census of RY 468
    Number of children (can potential Exalt): 2028
    Number of dynasts: 12989
    Number of married couples: 6000
    Number of dynasts whom died: 64 (Old age: 46, by chance: 18)
    Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 34
    Number of new marriages: 24
    Number of children born: 237
    ------------------
    Census of RY 518
    Number of children (can potential Exalt): 2102
    Number of dynasts: 11931
    Number of married couples: 5483
    Number of dynasts whom died: 48 (Old age: 33, by chance: 15)
    Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 111
    Number of new marriages: 22
    Number of children born: 589
    ------------------
    Census of RY 568
    Number of children (can potential Exalt): 1782
    Number of dynasts: 11528
    Number of married couples: 5282
    Number of dynasts whom died: 34 (Old age: 17, by chance: 17)
    Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 24
    Number of new marriages: 22
    Number of children born: 154
    ------------------
    Census of RY 618
    Number of children (can potential Exalt): 1923
    Number of dynasts: 12042
    Number of married couples: 5574
    Number of dynasts whom died: 27 (Old age: 13, by chance: 14)
    Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 22
    Number of new marriages: 21
    Number of children born: 183
    ------------------
    Census of RY 668
    Number of children (can potential Exalt): 2022
    Number of dynasts: 12366
    Number of married couples: 5704
    Number of dynasts whom died: 30 (Old age: 14, by chance: 16)
    Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 44
    Number of new marriages: 28
    Number of children born: 261
    ------------------
    Census of RY 718
    Number of children (can potential Exalt): 1958
    Number of dynasts: 12118
    Number of married couples: 5620
    Number of dynasts whom died: 21 (Old age: 5, by chance: 16)
    Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 42
    Number of new marriages: 50
    Number of children born: 294
    ------------------
    Census of RY 768
    Number of children (can potential Exalt): 1880
    Number of dynasts: 11988
    Number of married couples: 5524
    Number of dynasts whom died: 21 (Old age: 7, by chance: 14)
    Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 18
    Number of new marriages: 25
    Number of children born: 172
    ------------------
    Census of RY 818
    Number of children (can potential Exalt): 2016
    Number of dynasts: 12055
    Number of married couples: 5552
    Number of dynasts whom died: 78 (Old age: 63, by chance: 15)
    Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 34
    Number of new marriages: 18
    Number of children born: 247
    ------------------
    Census of RY 868
    Number of children (can potential Exalt): 1956
    Number of dynasts: 12176
    Number of married couples: 5620
    Number of dynasts whom died: 25 (Old age: 13, by chance: 12)
    Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 51
    Number of new marriages: 31
    Number of children born: 405
    ------------------
    Census of RY 918
    Number of children (can potential Exalt): 1918
    Number of dynasts: 12112
    Number of married couples: 5600
    Number of dynasts whom died: 35 (Old age: 19, by chance: 16)
    Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 31
    Number of new marriages: 27
    Number of children born: 225
    ------------------
    Census of RY 968
    Number of children (can potential Exalt): 1929
    Number of dynasts: 12080
    Number of married couples: 5560
    Number of dynasts whom died: 32 (Old age: 13, by chance: 19)
    Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 29
    Number of new marriages: 30
    Number of children born: 244
    ------------------
    Census of RY 1018
    Number of children (can potential Exalt): 1990
    Number of dynasts: 12034
    Number of married couples: 5577
    Number of dynasts whom died: 33 (Old age: 18, by chance: 15)
    Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 38
    Number of new marriages: 25
    Number of children born: 265
    ------------------
    Census of RY 1068
    Number of children (can potential Exalt): 1937
    Number of dynasts: 11999
    Number of married couples: 5527
    Number of dynasts whom died: 25 (Old age: 12, by chance: 13)
    Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 35
    Number of new marriages: 35
    Number of children born: 277
    ------------------
    Census of RY 1118
    Number of children (can potential Exalt): 1913
    Number of dynasts: 11967
    Number of married couples: 5525
    Number of dynasts whom died: 28 (Old age: 15, by chance: 13)
    Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 31
    Number of new marriages: 24
    Number of children born: 206
    ------------------
    Census of RY 1168
    Number of children (can potential Exalt): 2021
    Number of dynasts: 11959
    Number of married couples: 5549
    Number of dynasts whom died: 35 (Old age: 20, by chance: 15)
    Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 38
    Number of new marriages: 27
    Number of children born: 274
    ------------------


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    • #3
      Da code (java, imports excluded)


      Code:
      public class DBPopulationMath {
      
          private static final int YEARS_BETWEEN_KIDS = 12;
          private static final double EXALTATION_CHANCE = 0.6;
          private static final int MAX_MORTAL_AGE = 25;
          private static final int MAX_DRAGONBLOODED_AGE = 500;
          
          public static void main(String a[]) {
              RealmSociety realmSociety = new RealmSociety();
              //Assume 10,000 dragonblooded
              //Approximately 1/2 middle age, 1/3 young, and the remainder (1/6) elderly
              //Middle Aged = 125 +/- 50
              //Young = 50 +/- 25
              //Elderly = 225 +/- 75
              for(int i=0;i<5000;i++) {
                  realmSociety.dynasts.add(new Dragonblooded(around(200, 100)));
              }
              
              for(int i=0;i<3500;i++) {
                  realmSociety.dynasts.add(new Dragonblooded(around(125, 100)));
              }
      
              for(int i=0;i<1500;i++) {
                  realmSociety.dynasts.add(new Dragonblooded(around(400, 100)));
              }
          
              //Next, backfill marriages by marrying up all eligable bachelors
              //Guess the ages of these marriages by (Youngest partner - 50)
              realmSociety.marryBachelors();
              for (Couple couple : realmSociety.couples) {
                  couple.yearsMarried = couple.probableAge();
              }
              
              //Next, get an initial estimate of children by going through each couple and figuring out the number of kids they should have had.
              for (Couple couple : realmSociety.couples) {
                  List<Person> kids = list();
                  for(int i=0;i<couple.yearsMarried;i++) {
                      for (Person kid : kids) {
                          kid.age++;
                      }
                      if(i % YEARS_BETWEEN_KIDS == 0 && Math.random() < AgeCategory.CHILD.chanceOfDeath()) {
                          kids.add(new Person());
                      }
                  }
                  realmSociety.children.addAll(listFrom(select(kids, ageLessThan(MAX_MORTAL_AGE))));
              }
              
              //Finally, kick off the gumball machine
              int initialYear = 168;
              int yearsToRun = 1000;
              for(int realmYear = initialYear;realmYear < (initialYear + yearsToRun); realmYear++) {
                  realmSociety.anotherYearPasses();
                  if((realmYear - initialYear) % 50 == 0 ) {
                    realmSociety.censusIn(realmYear);
                  }
              }
              realmSociety.censusIn(initialYear + yearsToRun);
          }
          
          private static Predicate<? super Person> ageLessThan(final int maxMortalAge) {
              return new Predicate<Person>() {
      
                  @Override
                  public boolean apply(Person input) {
                      return input.age < maxMortalAge;
                  }
              };
          }
      
          private static int around(int i, int within) {
              return i + new Random().nextInt(within)  - new Random().nextInt(within);
          }
      
          private static class RealmSociety {
              List<Person> children = list();
              List<Dragonblooded> dynasts = list();
              List<Couple> couples = list();
              private int childrenWhichExalt;
              private int dynastsDeadOfOldAge;
              private Integer dynastsKilledByChance;
              private Integer childrenKilledByChance;
              private int childrenBorn;
              private int marriages;
      
              public void anotherYearPasses() {
                  for (Person person : children) {
                      person.age++;
                  }
                  for (Dragonblooded person : dynasts) {
                      person.age++;
                  }
                  for (Couple couple : couples) {
                      couple.yearsMarried++;
                  }
                  
                  this.childrenBorn = haveKids();
                  this.marriages = marryBachelors();
                  this.childrenWhichExalt = childrenGrowUp();
                  this.dynastsDeadOfOldAge = killViaAge();
                  Pair<Integer, Integer> killedViaChance = killViaChance();
                  this.dynastsKilledByChance = killedViaChance.first();
                  this.childrenKilledByChance = killedViaChance.second();
                  
              }
              
              private Pair<Integer, Integer> killViaChance() {
                  List<Person> childrenKilledByChance = listFrom(select(children, whomDieByChance()));
                  children.removeAll(childrenKilledByChance);
                  return pair(killDynasts(listFrom(select(dynasts, whomDieByChance()))), childrenKilledByChance.size());
              }
              
              private Predicate<? super Person> whomDieByChance() {
                  return new Predicate<Person>() {
                      @Override
                      public boolean apply(Person input) {
                          return Math.random() <= AgeCategory.categoryFor(input).chanceOfDeath();
                      }
                  };
              }
      
              public void censusIn(int realmYear) {
                  System.out.println("Census of RY " + realmYear);
                  System.out.println("Number of children (can potential Exalt): " + children.size());
                  System.out.println("Number of dynasts: " + dynasts.size());
                  System.out.println("Number of married couples: " + couples.size());
                  System.out.println("Number of dynasts whom died: " + (dynastsDeadOfOldAge + dynastsKilledByChance) + " (Old age: " + dynastsDeadOfOldAge + ", by chance: " + dynastsKilledByChance + ")");
                  System.out.println("Number of newly Exalted dynasts: " + childrenWhichExalt);
                  System.out.println("Number of new marriages: " + marriages);
                  System.out.println("Number of children born: " + childrenBorn);
                  System.out.println("------------------");
              }
      
              public int haveKids() {
                  List<Person> kids = list();
                  for (Couple couple : couples) {
                      if(couple.haveAnotherKid()) {
                          couple.haveKid();
                          kids.add(new Person());
                      } else {
                          couple.yearsSinceHadKid++;
                      }
                  }
                  children.addAll(kids);
                  return kids.size();
              }
              
              public int marryBachelors() {
                  int marriages = 0;
                  List<Dragonblooded> bachelors = eligableBachelors();
                  Collections.sort(bachelors);
                  for(int i=0;i<bachelors.size()-1;i+=2) {
                      marry(bachelors.get(i), bachelors.get(i+1));
                      marriages++;
                  }
                  return marriages;
              }
              
              public List<Dragonblooded> eligableBachelors() {
                  return listFrom(select(dynasts, not(whichAreMarried()).and(withAgeGreaterThan(AgeCategory.YOUTH.maxAge).and(not(withAgeGreaterThan(AgeCategory.ELDER.maxAge))))));
              }
      
              private Predicate<Dragonblooded> whichAreMarried() {
                  return new Predicate<Dragonblooded>() {
      
                      @Override
                      public boolean apply(Dragonblooded input) {
                          return doesAny(couples, contain(input));
                      }
      
                      private Predicate<Couple> contain(final Dragonblooded dynast) {
                          return new Predicate<Couple>() {
                              @Override
                              public boolean apply(Couple input) {
                                  return input.contains(dynast);
                              }
                              
                          };
                      }
                  };
              }
      
              public void marry(Dragonblooded a, Dragonblooded b) {
                  couples.add(new Couple(a, b));
              }
              
              public int childrenGrowUp() {
                  Iterable<Person> childrenGrowingUp = select(children, withAgeGreaterThan(MAX_MORTAL_AGE));
                  List<Person> childrenWhomExalt = listFrom(select(childrenGrowingUp, whomExalt()));
                  dynasts.addAll(listFrom(transform(childrenWhomExalt, exalt())));
                  children.removeAll(listFrom(childrenGrowingUp));
                  return childrenWhomExalt.size();
              }
              
              private Function<Person, Dragonblooded> exalt() {
                  return new Function<Person, Dragonblooded>() {
                      @Override
                      public Dragonblooded apply(Person input) {
                          return new Dragonblooded(input.age);
                      }
                  };
              }
      
              private Predicate<? super Person> whomExalt() {
                  return new Predicate<Person>() {
                      @Override
                      public boolean apply(Person input) {
                          return Math.random() <= EXALTATION_CHANCE;
                      }
                  };
              }
      
              public int killViaAge() {
                  return killDynasts(listFrom(select(dynasts, withAgeGreaterThan(MAX_DRAGONBLOODED_AGE))));
              }
      
              private int killDynasts(List<Dragonblooded> dynastsDying) {
                  dynasts.removeAll(dynastsDying);
                  couples.removeAll(listFrom(select(couples, with(dynastsDying))));
                  return dynastsDying.size();
              }
      
              private Predicate<? super Couple> with(final List<Dragonblooded> dynasts) {
                  return new Predicate<Couple>() {
                      @Override
                      public boolean apply(Couple input) {
                          return dynasts.contains(input.husband) || dynasts.contains(input.wife);
                      }
                  };
              }
      
              private Predicate<Person> withAgeGreaterThan(final int maxAge) {
                  return new Predicate<Person>() {
      
                      @Override
                      public boolean apply(Person input) {
                          return input.age > maxAge;
                      }
                  };
              }
          }
          
          private static class Person implements Comparable<Person> {
              int age = 0;
      
              @Override
              public int compareTo(Person o) {
                  return this.age - o.age;
              }
          }
          
          private static class Dragonblooded extends Person {
              public Dragonblooded(int age) {
                  this.age = age;
              }
          }
          
          private static enum AgeCategory {
              CHILD(0.215, 5),
              PATRICIAN(0.0005, 25),
              YOUTH(0.001, 50),
              PRIME(0.002, 300),
              ELDER(0.0001, 500);
              
              private double chanceOfDeath;
              private int maxAge;
      
              private AgeCategory(double chanceOfDeath, int maxAge) {
                  this.chanceOfDeath = chanceOfDeath;
                  this.maxAge = maxAge;
              }
              
              public double chanceOfDeath() {
                  return chanceOfDeath;
              }
              
              public static AgeCategory categoryFor(Person p) {
                  if(p.age <= CHILD.maxAge) {
                      return CHILD;
                  }
                  if(p.age <= PATRICIAN.maxAge) {
                      return PATRICIAN;
                  }
                  if(p.age <= YOUTH.maxAge) {
                      return YOUTH;
                  }
                  if(p.age <= PRIME.maxAge) {
                      return PRIME;
                  }
                  return ELDER;
              }
          }
          
          private static class Couple {
              int yearsMarried;
              int yearsSinceHadKid = 0;
              int numberOfKids = 0;
              Dragonblooded husband;
              Dragonblooded wife;
              
              public Couple(Dragonblooded a, Dragonblooded b) {
                  husband = a;
                  wife = b;
                  yearsMarried = 0;
              }
              
              public void haveKid() {
                  yearsSinceHadKid = 0;
                  numberOfKids++;
              }
              
              public boolean haveAnotherKid() {
                  if (husband.age >= AgeCategory.PRIME.maxAge || wife.age >= AgeCategory.PRIME.maxAge) {
                      return false;
                  }
                  return Math.min((8 + (numberOfKids * 2)), 12) - yearsSinceHadKid <= 0;
              }
              
              public boolean contains(Dragonblooded dynast) {
                  return husband.equals(dynast) || wife.equals(dynast);
              }
              
              public int probableAge() {
                  return Math.min(husband.age, wife.age) - 50;
              }
          }
      }


      EDIT: I'm a little embarased to post this code; I know it's extremely hacky and ugly.
      Last edited by wastevens; 10-09-2014, 10:09 AM.


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      Comment


      • #4
        Maybe not top-tier coding, but you still wrote it which is more than I have done so I don't have any room to complain.

        I seriously doubt the 20% child mortality rate though, given Dynastic medicine involves everything from thaumaturgical wards against diseases to magical cure-alls like seven bounties paste to summoned demon physicians to Dragon Blooded healers. The last of whom can cure just about any disease, mundane or magical, in a matter of minutes - if they are willing to put in the effort. And for their own children, or the children of their house, I'm willing to bet they are.


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        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Lord Sia View Post
          Maybe not top-tier coding, but you still wrote it which is more than I have done so I don't have any room to complain.

          I seriously doubt the 20% child mortality rate though, given Dynastic medicine involves everything from thaumaturgical wards against diseases to magical cure-alls like seven bounties paste to summoned demon physicians to Dragon Blooded healers. The last of whom can cure just about any disease, mundane or magical, in a matter of minutes - if they are willing to put in the effort. And for their own children, or the children of their house, I'm willing to bet they are.

          Eh, Creation is still supposed to be a bronze age setting- magic should push it towards 'better', but not all the way to 'Bronze age but with none of the problems of the bronze age'. And Dynasts aren't shown as being especially personally invested in their kids in the various Aspect books are any guide- not until the kids are old enough to start showing off. (Hence one of the reasons I postulate a massive drop in the mortality rate after hitting 6 years old).


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          Comment


          • #6
            (Also, if the mortality rate goes much below 20%, you rapidly see a massive population explosion, which would imply an unnaturally high mortality rate in another age category (which seems even less likely), an even lower birthrate (which is already on the low side of what we canonically know) or a lower exaltation chance (which might be *reasonable* but is again contra to what we've had presented).


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            • #7
              Originally posted by wastevens View Post
              And Dynasts aren't shown as being especially personally invested in their kids in the various Aspect books are any guide- not until the kids are old enough to start showing off. (Hence one of the reasons I postulate a massive drop in the mortality rate after hitting 6 years old).
              They still represent an investment before that point even if the parents aren't personally interested.


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              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by wastevens View Post
                (Also, if the mortality rate goes much below 20%, you rapidly see a massive population explosion, which would imply an unnaturally high mortality rate in another age category (which seems even less likely), an even lower birthrate (which is already on the low side of what we canonically know) or a lower exaltation chance (which might be *reasonable* but is again contra to what we've had presented).
                Out of curiosity, what happens if you reduce it to modern day levels of infant mortality such as might have existed in the First Age?

                Comment


                • #9
                  I take it that almost all deaths by children take place in secondary school; the curriculum of the House of Bells is extremely brutal (the kind of thing that would almost certainly kill any mortal), the Heptagram is a place where you pack together four score kids learning dangerous powers (and occasionally serving as guinea pigs for the instructors), and the Spiral Academy is the start point for the careers of such intrigue that your peers in those fields will probably look down on a graduating class that didn't have at least a few "mysterious" deaths.

                  For the Dynasty in general, I'd say the majority of deaths come in the military, particularly for mid-ranking officers, and for those adventurers who are spending several years or decades gallivanting around the Threshold, with a fairly significant portion of the remainder made up of assassinations to get access to administrative positions, and the rest coming from feuds, intrigues and duels in the social scene (which, like the Spiral Academy, is probably considered frightfully dull if there isn't the odd juicy murder to get all worked up about).

                  Although I'd also note that mortality is not necessarily the sole reason for Dragon Blooded no longer counting as part of the Dynasty; if an adventurer finds they enjoy that lifestyle so much that they never actually return to the Blessed Isle, or if somebody who has found their prospects severely damaged decides to disappear themselves, they're still keeping the numbers down.

                  On that note, I'd imagine that if one wanted to go with a portrayal of the Scarlet Empress in which her ruthlessness was an affectation for the sake of preserving her mystique and keeping her subordinates on their toes, I'd imagine that more than a few executions attributed to her were actually faked, and the individual spirited to some out of the way place with a decent allowance. Like, I could see that as having been the fate of the mistress whom Ragara Bhagwai saved. It's certainly explicitly part of the deal with House Iselsi (even if that's for the sake of deceiving the other Great Houses more than giving the Iselsi a fair cop).


                  I have approximate knowledge of many things.
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                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by wastevens View Post
                    And Dynasts aren't shown as being especially personally invested in their kids in the various Aspect books are any guide- not until the kids are old enough to start showing off. (Hence one of the reasons I postulate a massive drop in the mortality rate after hitting 6 years old).
                    I think Dynast children are generally expected to start being tutored from almost the moment they can walk and talk.


                    I have approximate knowledge of many things.
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                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Yeah from Exalted: Dragon Blood, and MEP Dragon Blood, you get the sense that even if your not emotionally invested in your children you are financialy invested in them. Dynasts seem to spend a lot of MONEY in raising a child. So infant mortality rate among dynastic children is pretty low. Canon sources though has them dieing in high numbers though Since the majority of officer positions are filled with Dragon Blooded sent into the meat grinder. I hate to say it but the majority of deaths probably do happen durring that manditory military service peroid which is why they want young dragon bloods poping out new dynasts early and often, because they otherwise are going to die out, with the mortality rate being so high from the moment they enter the warchamine to the moment they retire.


                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by HaplessWithDice View Post
                        Yeah from Exalted: Dragon Blood, and MEP Dragon Blood, you get the sense that even if your not emotionally invested in your children you are financialy invested in them. Dynasts seem to spend a lot of MONEY in raising a child. So infant mortality rate among dynastic children is pretty low. Canon sources though has them dieing in high numbers though Since the majority of officer positions are filled with Dragon Blooded sent into the meat grinder. I hate to say it but the majority of deaths probably do happen durring that manditory military service peroid which is why they want young dragon bloods poping out new dynasts early and often, because they otherwise are going to die out, with the mortality rate being so high from the moment they enter the warchamine to the moment they retire.

                        The childhood training doesn't really kick into high gear until they can at least walk and walk with some self-control; anything before 5 is a pure crapshot in those terms. Plus, infants and toddlers are just a lot more sensitive to anything going wrong. Hence, again, dramatic decrease in mortality after age 5; children that survive that long will probably survive long enough to Exalt (or not).

                        Also... what mandatory military service? The Realm doesn't have any mandatory military service that I recall of it's dynastic Dragonblooded (Lost Eggs are another thing).

                        (Granted, it's reasonable to assume that probably between a third and a half of the Host does go out in the field; a mortality rate of around 1% might be appropriate for them. Have to figure a way to incorporate that...)


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                        • #13
                          I wouldn't say that there's an explicit required military service, but that many of the Dragon Blooded are liable to go along with military expeditions in various supplementary roles of their own volition, and there's a measure of scorn for any who have not. Not necessarily Realm expeditions either; I'd say more than a few adventurers go off to conflict hotspots, including the River Province/Scavenger Lands* to join up with foreign ventures for fun and glory and profit, as well as being a kind of ambassador of the Realm's military prowess.

                          I wouldn't exactly call the legions a meat grinder either; the Dragon Blooded are still the elemental demigod officers and elites of the most powerful military in the world. It's just that any long term military engagement will chip away a bit at the whole (and there is the occasional major disaster when they go up against something that can compete on their level; one of the Aspect Books has an account of a Realm military unit that was virtually wiped out by an army of Fair Folk making a beeline for Paragon, an occasion where the Empress was forced to bring out the big guns).

                          * Now, I wonder if the River Province might now refer to the reasonably stable union of states organised under the triumvirate of Lookshy, Nexus and Great Forks, while the Scavenger Lands refers to the more unstable and anarchic lands that are largely freed of Realm domination by virtue of River Province power projection, but lack the concurrent stabilising influences.


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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Exthalion View Post

                            Out of curiosity, what happens if you reduce it to modern day levels of infant mortality such as might have existed in the First Age?
                            For purposes of this exercise, I'm reducing the child mortality rate to .0005 and the patrician mortality rate to .0001; the .0005 is the approximate per year childhood mortality rate in modern day Luxemborg (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/...-last&sort=asc), and (while I can't find definite numbers) mortality rate can be safely assumed to decline after surviving infancy. Other initial conditions 10000 dragonblooded, around 4,000 of which are married), exaltation chances and mortality rates amongst Dragonblooded are held constant.

                            (Note: the Luxumberg infant mortality rate is 2 deaths per every 1000 live births by the age of 5. Thus why it's not .002)


                            Census of RY 168
                            Number of children (can potential Exalt): 2
                            Children: 0
                            Patricians: 2
                            Number of dynasts: 9982
                            Youths: 110
                            In Prime: 8372
                            Elders: 1500
                            Number of married couples: 4927
                            Number of dynasts whom died: 18
                            Old age: 0
                            Other: 18
                            Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 0
                            Number of new marriages: 5
                            Number of children born: 0
                            ------------------
                            Census of RY 178
                            Number of children (can potential Exalt): 4052
                            Children: 4050
                            Patricians: 2
                            Number of dynasts: 9794
                            Youths: 41
                            In Prime: 8232
                            Elders: 1521
                            Number of married couples: 4866
                            Number of dynasts whom died: 21
                            Old age: 1
                            Other: 20
                            Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 0
                            Number of new marriages: 15
                            Number of children born: 15
                            ------------------
                            Census of RY 188
                            Number of children (can potential Exalt): 7973
                            Children: 3887
                            Patricians: 4086
                            Number of dynasts: 9616
                            Youths: 7
                            In Prime: 8038
                            Elders: 1571
                            Number of married couples: 4798
                            Number of dynasts whom died: 16
                            Old age: 4
                            Other: 12
                            Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 0
                            Number of new marriages: 9
                            Number of children born: 16
                            ------------------
                            Census of RY 198
                            Number of children (can potential Exalt): 8135
                            Children: 116
                            Patricians: 8019
                            Number of dynasts: 9398
                            Youths: 2
                            In Prime: 7764
                            Elders: 1632
                            Number of married couples: 4690
                            Number of dynasts whom died: 23
                            Old age: 7
                            Other: 16
                            Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 0
                            Number of new marriages: 10
                            Number of children born: 20
                            ------------------
                            Census of RY 208
                            Number of children (can potential Exalt): 7832
                            Children: 161
                            Patricians: 7671
                            Number of dynasts: 11557
                            Youths: 2362
                            In Prime: 7481
                            Elders: 1714
                            Number of married couples: 4589
                            Number of dynasts whom died: 25
                            Old age: 5
                            Other: 20
                            Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 5
                            Number of new marriages: 11
                            Number of children born: 27
                            ------------------
                            Census of RY 218
                            Number of children (can potential Exalt): 7438
                            Children: 3456
                            Patricians: 3982
                            Number of dynasts: 13695
                            Youths: 4690
                            In Prime: 7135
                            Elders: 1870
                            Number of married couples: 4497
                            Number of dynasts whom died: 20
                            Old age: 7
                            Other: 13
                            Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 14
                            Number of new marriages: 5
                            Number of children born: 30
                            ------------------
                            Census of RY 228
                            Number of children (can potential Exalt): 6958
                            Children: 3143
                            Patricians: 3815
                            Number of dynasts: 15652
                            Youths: 4585
                            In Prime: 9020
                            Elders: 2047
                            Number of married couples: 5524
                            Number of dynasts whom died: 33
                            Old age: 11
                            Other: 22
                            Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 19
                            Number of new marriages: 8
                            Number of children born: 39
                            ------------------
                            Census of RY 238
                            Number of children (can potential Exalt): 8112
                            Children: 1299
                            Patricians: 6813
                            Number of dynasts: 15463
                            Youths: 2404
                            In Prime: 10845
                            Elders: 2214
                            Number of married couples: 6520
                            Number of dynasts whom died: 38
                            Old age: 16
                            Other: 22
                            Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 13
                            Number of new marriages: 1126
                            Number of children born: 33
                            ------------------
                            Census of RY 248
                            Number of children (can potential Exalt): 9726
                            Children: 2369
                            Patricians: 7357
                            Number of dynasts: 17255
                            Youths: 4399
                            In Prime: 10407
                            Elders: 2449
                            Number of married couples: 6419
                            Number of dynasts whom died: 33
                            Old age: 13
                            Other: 20
                            Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 20
                            Number of new marriages: 12
                            Number of children born: 46
                            ------------------
                            Census of RY 258
                            Number of children (can potential Exalt): 10308
                            Children: 1345
                            Patricians: 8963
                            Number of dynasts: 18805
                            Youths: 4100
                            In Prime: 11961
                            Elders: 2744
                            Number of married couples: 7337
                            Number of dynasts whom died: 46
                            Old age: 12
                            Other: 34
                            Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 19
                            Number of new marriages: 18
                            Number of children born: 1079
                            ------------------
                            Census of RY 268
                            Number of children (can potential Exalt): 10748
                            Children: 2356
                            Patricians: 8392
                            Number of dynasts: 20839
                            Youths: 4456
                            In Prime: 13331
                            Elders: 3052
                            Number of married couples: 8178
                            Number of dynasts whom died: 40
                            Old age: 9
                            Other: 31
                            Number of newly Exalted dynasts: 27
                            Number of new marriages: 31
                            Number of children born: 59
                            ------------------


                            (The system starts to seriously chug after about this point, so I decided that was sufficient to demonstrate the significantly faster growth curve)


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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Isator Levi View Post
                              * Now, I wonder if the River Province might now refer to the reasonably stable union of states organised under the triumvirate of Lookshy, Nexus and Great Forks, while the Scavenger Lands refers to the more unstable and anarchic lands that are largely freed of Realm domination by virtue of River Province power projection, but lack the concurrent stabilising influences.
                              AFAIK, that division is completely artificial - Scavenger Lands is simply the popular Realm-centric nickname that spread everywhere now matter how much locals might hate the patronizing characterization involved.

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