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The Demographics of Mage

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  • #16
    First batch of nationalities, done with the assumptions I mentioned earlier, and I still need to seperate mages by eras active, but this is more or less 'total' representation - that is to say, this is the highest end maximum figure for how many American mages have been identified in the game's run. 'Ambiguous' indicates where a mage had a name that could lend to any number of nationalities - e.g. John Blake might be born anywhere in the Anglosphere. How that's handled in the chart that includes them is that I took the fairly certain figures of the Anglosphere (e.g. that America has <x> magi) and figured out the proportionate representation those nations have, and assigned the names proportionately through their appropriate nations. Unknown names are usually either those with no possible identifying information (e.g. Unnamed Sister of Hipployta #6), VA nicknames, or those with only a first name that is not especially helpful (John, for instance, on its own) for determining nationality, and sum to about 41% of the total.



    As an aside, these figures would give an America-wide figure of 1:193,000 for ratio, not including Canada or Mexico. Europe has a lot of data 'pollution' from DA:M and MtSC, but if we take those numbers and assume they're still roughly good, it'd give us 1:580,000.

    Up next is the time frame seperation, followed by time-frame and continental breakdowns, and breakdowns of Technocracy v Tradition v Orphans on ethnic grounds.

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    • #17
      While I chew through eras to clear up data, it strikes me as being worth a glance in its own right. This graph includes every known mage (how an era is determined is by assumption where no data is available - that is, that John Jackson in Blood Treachery (random name) is a Modern Period mage, but if he's in DA:Mage, he's from the 1200s. Where actual information on their era is available or inferable, it is used instead.), and where a mage is active in more than one era, they get counted once for each era they are active in. If a mage is known to be active in one era only - e.g. John is said to be a 14th century mage in a book - they are counted only for that, and presumed to no longer be active after.



      As the data shows, the vast majority of known or inferred magi are modern, but the renaissance saw the kind of explosion in numbers that makes it really very significant in its own right - and rightly so, as the battleground between the nascent sects. What's more interesting is where the numbers decline - the late Ancient and Roman Collapse, the 900s, and the 1500/1600s all see significant dwindling.
      Last edited by loomer; 02-11-2017, 07:13 AM.

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      • #18
        Modern day demographics, with the potential errors the assumption method brings in.



        So, the burning question has to be 'why the hell are the Crafts so big? Surely they didn't detail 300 Bata'a!' They didn't, and the reason it's skewed that way is that instead, they gave maximum figures for those crafts. They'd say 'oh, there are 120 Hem-Ka-Sobk in Cairo', and each of those 120 is counted. What this means is that the representation skews away from 'actual' representation of the 'larger' crafts towards 'nominal' representation. I vaguely recall that the Crafts are meant to be something like 10 - 15% of the total, so we're not that far off anyway.

        We do however have some fun numbers we can also bring in: Ascension 2004's big army showdowns, which are both 'peak forces' (the maximum strength gathered at any one time) and the shattered remnants of a decimated population courtesy of all the shit that's already gone down before then. Presumably, there were more mages before the final clash, but we don't have real numbers for them. This is an assumption that for some reason usually isn't made, to my perpetual frustation - Aleph's army will be quoted as 'the majority of technocrats ever', but by that point we're not talking the first days of a war but the last desperate strike by both sides after months to years of attrition from every angle, in a world where human teeth rain from the sky, the dead rise, and half of humanity itself has been extinguished. It's like treating the armies of Stalingrad at the end of the siege as if they were the same as when they arrived, and going 'oh well obviously the Russian army was never bigger than these starved, skeletal men'. But moving on from that to what it does to the numbers.

        Aleph's army contained 4,000 mages and 8,000 enlightened citizens, along with 1,000 ITX hardsuits - which are usually piloted by actual mages and are distinct from HIT Marks. So we'll treat it was 4,500 and 8,500. We only know of 900 technocrats, so our numbers just jumped more than tenfold to 13899, but we'll assume that 2/3rds of known mages are already counted in the armies, so that brings us down to the much lower 13300 figure. The Trads, by contrast, at that point include both the Crafts and their own forces in their smaller army of 3,000 mages and 5,000 sorcerors, so we'll treat them as having a basic figure of around 1780, which discounts the Crafts that they aren't likely to tolerate long enough to fight along side. The same logic of 2/3rds of known magi already accounted for in the army takes us to 8,600, with a split of ~5,000 Traditionalists and ~3,000 crafts at that point. Effectively, if we take those as the vast majority of all mages left alive and representative of 'all mages, period', then our effective ratio becomes 61% Union (which I think speaks more to the Union's ability to survive the collapse better, frankly), with the 39% of the Alliance splitting into about 25% Traditions and 14% Crafts.

        For those inclined to view Aleph's army and its enemy as effectively 'the cap', there you have it. Technocracy's bigger and badder. But I think the more accurate figure is probably closer to those in the data set, with the Technocracy and the Traditions boosted over the Crafts to bring them down to 15% or so, with an even split putting the Trads at 45% and the Union at 33%.

        To clarify the Union breakdown, Men in black are counted seperately from the NWO as half are conditioned sleepers, clones, or other Technocrats in suits tagging along.

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        • #19
          There's also a few outliers I've left off that would massively skew the data, like the 3,000 Void Engineers at the New Cop station.

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          • #20
            Alright, breakdown of the modern Trads by known or inferred/assumed nationality. 'Simplified' means I've cut out the number of very minor nationalities and rolled them into larger groupings, e.g. the minor european nationalities cluster or the Africa cluster.



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            • #21

              As these are showing, the most ethnically diverse tradition is the Dreamspeakers (followed closely by the Order of Hermes in raw number of ethnicities represented, but not in proportion), while when it comes to the Technocracy, the Syndicate takes that prize. The Technocracy as a whole is not especially diverse, in large part because the factions that represent the African, Arabic, and Minor Asian technocratic subsects never got any detail, while the Metal Dragons - as the major Technocratic asian sect - largely stamp a 'stay out' on Asia without getting any real members nominated themselves.
              Last edited by loomer; 02-12-2017, 12:07 AM.

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              • #22


                We actually know very little about the birthdates of magi. We do know, though, that a good whack of Modern Magi with known birth dates are wretched Baby Boomers or Gen Xers, that WW2 was brutal even for magi, and that the Ascension War was especially lethal in 1993, 1997, and 1999.

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                • #23


                  Next up, chantry breakdowns by tradition, by nations within continent, and with Sorceror's Crusade and DA:M pruned into seperate sets. I'm pretty sure working with all this gibberish data is making me rapidly learn to Git Gud at excel.

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                  • #24
                    Good work!

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                    • #25

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                      • #26
                        So, as I wrap up to move to the other datasets in need of cleaning, we come to death breakdowns. Some interesting, and concerning, figures emerge. Whether it's Hollow Ones, who live fast, die young, and leave corpses that look more or less the same as they did anyway or the disproportionately heavy losses by the Traditions, some people die more than others. Don't want to die as a mage? Be a Knight Templar, as only 1.04% of those known in the 20th century died. Deathwish? Sign up today as a Hollow One for a 23.44% chance to be dead, or a Hermeticist for an 18% chance.



                        Traditionalist/Technocrat designates references to 'a tradition mage' where no specific tradition was available, etc.

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                        • #27


                          This excludes abstract figures like the mass death toll of the Massassa War. Each data point is a specific mage who died in a given year. Mostly it's useful for the spikes - the periods of mass death.

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                          • #28
                            Once we incorporate some of the outlying figures of multiple thousands of technocrats, etc, we get a nice overall population. What I've done is I've taken the bare minimum count we have in the dataset - all the mages ever mentioned - and treated that as being accurate as a representation of proportion between the factions. What we wind up with is something on the order of 78,000 magi active in the modern world, with the 27% Union/40% Council/25% Craft/6% Nephandi/2% Marauder split. That comes to 1 mage to every 82,500 people on earth. There are more mages than there are people living on Greenland or Dominica.

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by loomer View Post
                              Once we incorporate some of the outlying figures of multiple thousands of technocrats, etc, we get a nice overall population. What I've done is I've taken the bare minimum count we have in the dataset - all the mages ever mentioned - and treated that as being accurate as a representation of proportion between the factions. What we wind up with is something on the order of 78,000 magi active in the modern world, with the 27% Union/40% Council/25% Craft/6% Nephandi/2% Marauder split. That comes to 1 mage to every 82,500 people on earth. There are more mages than there are people living on Greenland or Dominica.
                              Wait - that would make mages more common than vampires

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                              • #30
                                Not necessarily. We'll see what the real minimum vampire figure is soon. As for that quoted figure, you can always drop it down vastly by just slapping the extra 3000 Void Engineers on and making them the single largest faction in Mage by not applying a proportionate increase to the other trads, crafts, and conventions if you like.

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