How often in your games do you actually witness big paradox backlashes?

The way I usually do paradox is like this.

The accumulation is M20, so 1 point for every vulgar effect, add another every 10 successes (if not performing a ritual). If it's vulgar with whitnesses, this changes to sphere rating worth of paradox (because I can't let Revised go).

Botches give sphere, sphere +1 or sphere + 1 doubled as appropriate. +1 for every extra arete roll made.

I usually let my mages accumulate paradox and let it build up. Gaining additional paradox when above 10 points is usually when I start doing paradox rolls.

So, if a mage as 10 points, and they do a single vulgar spell for 1 more point, I roll 11 dice and determine how many backlashed (then roll damage and determine effect).

Here's the rub. statistically, the more dice you roll, the more likely it is you'll get a number of successes close to half the dice rolled.

Rolling 11 is more likely to give you roughly 5 points of backlash, though 7 or 8 is not unheard off.

When you start to roll 20, however, you'll be lucky to get above 11 or 12.

What compounds this is botches. Every 1 you get cancels out a success, so lower numbers are favoured.

Just testing it out rolling 20 dice over and over, I managed to get 12 successes once, mostly got 9 or 8, and on three occasions got as low as 4.

This means that the vast majority of paradox effects felt in game would be trivial or minor, sometimes leaping into the moderate. Though Severe flaws are very rare, and drastic ones almost unseen.

In order to get a good chance at seeing a drastic flaw, you'd have to roll upwards of 50 points of paradox!

Is this about right or have I misinterpreted something? Have you ever seen BIG bouts of paradox backlash resulting in severe or drastic flaws?

If you do it this way, do you do anything to try tilt the numbers to make big backlashes happen?

One thing I usually do is, if the mage has, let's say, 17 points, and only 1-5 of them backlash, I won't make another backlash occur until they've exceeded 17 points again.

The way I usually do paradox is like this.

The accumulation is M20, so 1 point for every vulgar effect, add another every 10 successes (if not performing a ritual). If it's vulgar with whitnesses, this changes to sphere rating worth of paradox (because I can't let Revised go).

Botches give sphere, sphere +1 or sphere + 1 doubled as appropriate. +1 for every extra arete roll made.

I usually let my mages accumulate paradox and let it build up. Gaining additional paradox when above 10 points is usually when I start doing paradox rolls.

So, if a mage as 10 points, and they do a single vulgar spell for 1 more point, I roll 11 dice and determine how many backlashed (then roll damage and determine effect).

Here's the rub. statistically, the more dice you roll, the more likely it is you'll get a number of successes close to half the dice rolled.

Rolling 11 is more likely to give you roughly 5 points of backlash, though 7 or 8 is not unheard off.

When you start to roll 20, however, you'll be lucky to get above 11 or 12.

What compounds this is botches. Every 1 you get cancels out a success, so lower numbers are favoured.

Just testing it out rolling 20 dice over and over, I managed to get 12 successes once, mostly got 9 or 8, and on three occasions got as low as 4.

This means that the vast majority of paradox effects felt in game would be trivial or minor, sometimes leaping into the moderate. Though Severe flaws are very rare, and drastic ones almost unseen.

In order to get a good chance at seeing a drastic flaw, you'd have to roll upwards of 50 points of paradox!

Is this about right or have I misinterpreted something? Have you ever seen BIG bouts of paradox backlash resulting in severe or drastic flaws?

If you do it this way, do you do anything to try tilt the numbers to make big backlashes happen?

One thing I usually do is, if the mage has, let's say, 17 points, and only 1-5 of them backlash, I won't make another backlash occur until they've exceeded 17 points again.

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