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How rare are Methuselahs and Elders ?

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  • How rare are Methuselahs and Elders ?

    How rare are they and why don't they embrace more often? Some level of paranoia is of course justified but still.

  • #2
    They're more common than you think because attrition among neonates is extremely high.

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    • #3
      I'd say they are excedingly rare in the modern nights. In the Dark Ages and before you would probably have a decent chance of perhaps meeting someone if you worked your way up the chain, but after the Anarch Revolt I suspect more than a few have slipped into the shadows or mainly interact through servants, so as to not end up a snack for some power hungry youngsters armed with cutting edge technology.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Gurkhal View Post
        I'd say they are excedingly rare in the modern nights. In the Dark Ages and before you would probably have a decent chance of perhaps meeting someone if you worked your way up the chain, but after the Anarch Revolt I suspect more than a few have slipped into the shadows or mainly interact through servants, so as to not end up a snack for some power hungry youngsters armed with cutting edge technology.
        yes but there are some 5th gen Kindred out there, and 6th, 7th gen numbers don't seem to raise despite practicality and the need for powerful servants, pawns( though pawns can be drawn easily from high gen neonates)

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        • #5
          i'd say methuselahs make up around one percent of the vampire population with elders making up another 9

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          • #6
            I would say Elders are fairly common. In a typical Camarilla Domain, each major Clan probably has one or two that are still fairly active in local politics and social spheres. A Gangrel gather will have one, there is probably one that the Primogen get advice from, etc... If there are say 30 Kindted in a Domain, there are probably something like 2-5 Elders in there, too.

            For a Sabbat Domain, unless it is a major one, probably not. If they had made it that long, they have probably made it to a position where they can act more like a Methuselah, and remain well hidden, or more likely either predate or have outgrown the Sect itself.

            For the Independents, minus the Ravnos, because they tend to have pretty vlose telations with their Clanmates, it is probably not too difficult to meet Elders, and they very well might be your Mentor or Sire.

            As for Methuselahs, who can really say. They are older than the Sabbat, so will almost always be pullimg the Sabbat's strings, but not actually a part of it, and as at least Elders when the Sect came about, most likely are not the Sect's intended audience.

            Like the Sabbat, they are, technically older than the Camarilla as well, but very likely took a hand in it's creation, and probably find the Sect aligns with them. But, they are beyond taking active parts in it, and have no real means or desire to do so. A typical Camarilla Domain might have a single Methuselah, but most likely no one knows it, or if so, has no interactions with them. These are the Kindred that direct multiple Domains towards their goals, possibly even States or smaller Countries, by themselves.

            Independent Clan Methuselahs lilely are very similar, though I imagine some of them might have more direct and personal interactions with their own Clan, though not common. The Giovanni are just now beginning to actually have Methuselahs, (who are actually probably still actually Capadocian), who might be willing to have a conversation with a Giovanni.


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            • #7
              I think I agree in this with the WoD Population Project: http://shadownessence.org/index.php?...ation-project/
              Less than 1 % Methuselahs and about 9 % Elders.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Malkavian87 View Post
                I think I agree in this with the WoD Population Project: http://shadownessence.org/index.php?...ation-project/
                Less than 1 % Methuselahs and about 9 % Elders.
                Sorry. I don't register to forums etc just to see the page you linked to. Mind explaining it?





                English is not my native language, so i apologize for errors in grammar or spelling.

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                • #9
                  I guess I can copy paste the entire Vampire section of it:

                  KEY: Canonically Verified, Logically Extrapolated, Reasonably Estimated, Arbitrarily Speculated, Tentatively Inserted
                  I. HUMANS- 6.5 billion(% of world total)
                  ---A. Asia*- 3,879,000,000(60%)
                  ------1. East Asia (China, Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam, etc)- 1.978 billion (30.6%)
                  ------2. Southern Asia (India, Bangladesh, etc.)- 1.59 billion (24.6%)
                  ------3. Northern Asia (Russia, Uzbekistan, etc.)- 116 million (1.8%)
                  ------4. Western Asia (Middle East: Iran, Georgia, Jordan, etc.)- 193 million (3%)
                  ---B. Africa- 877,500,000(13.5%)
                  ---C. Europe- 727,000,000(11%)
                  ---D. North America- 501,500,000(8%)
                  ---E. South America- 379,500,000(6%)
                  ---F. Australia/Oceania- 32,000,000(.5%)
                  ---G. Antarctica- 0

                  II. KINDRED- 43,000(1:100,000 including kuei-jin... 1:50,000 excluding the Orient and Africa)
                  ---A. Major Bloodlines
                  ------1. Brujah – 5600(13%)
                  ------2. Malkavian – 3200(7.5%)
                  ------3. Nosferatu – 4700(11%)
                  ------4. Toreador – 4700(11%)
                  ------5. Tremere – 2600(6%)
                  ------6. Ventrue - 3200(7.5%)
                  ------7. Lasombra – 3000(7%)
                  ------8. Tzimisce - 1700(4%)
                  ------9. Assamite - 1300(3%)
                  ------10. Followers of Set – 1700(4%)
                  ------11. Gangrel – 3400(8%)
                  ------12. Giovanni – 900(2%)
                  ------13. Ravnos** (outside of India) – 900(2%) /260-350after Week of Nightmares
                  ---B. Minor Bloodlines/Other – 900(2%)
                  ------1. Ahrimanes, Baali, 2. Blood Brothers, 3. Cappadocians, 4. Children of Osiris, 5. City Gangrel, 6. Daughters of Cacophany, 7. Gargoyles, 8. Harbingers of Skulls, 9. Ishtarri, 10. Kiasyd, 11. Mariner Gangrel, 12. Nagaraja, 13. Salubri, 14. Samedi, 15. Tlacique
                  ---C. Ebony Kingdom (Laibon)- 8,000ish(1 in 110,000 africans, avg. of Western to Eastern kindred ratios)
                  ------1. Akunanse
                  ------2. Followers of Set
                  ------3. Guruhi
                  ------4. Ishtarri
                  ------5. Kinyonyi
                  ------6. Naglopers
                  ------7. Osebo
                  ------8. Shango
                  ------9. Xi Dundu
                  ------10. Minor Legacies (Arcus' Malkavians, Mla Watu, Nkulu Zao)
                  ---D. Caitiff - 5100(12%), includes 14th, 15th, and dhampires
                  ------11.Ghouls & Revenants- (2x kindred..?) 86,000

                  SECTS
                  ---A. Camarilla- 47%
                  ------1. Brujah- 20%
                  ------2. Toreador- 19%
                  ------3. Nosferatu- 17%
                  ------4. Ventrue- 12.5%
                  ------5. Gangrel- 10%
                  ------6. Malkavian- 7%
                  ------7. Tremere- 11%
                  ------8. Caitiff- 3.5%
                  ------9. Other- less than 1%
                  ---B. Sabbat- 33%
                  ------1. Lasombra- 25%
                  ------2. Tzimisce- 15%
                  ------3. Anti-Brujah- 9.5%
                  ------4. Anti-Gangrel- 8%
                  ------5. Anti-Malkavian- 7%
                  ------6. Anti-Nosferatu- 7%
                  ------7. Anti-Toreador- 5%
                  ------8. Anti-Ventrue- 4%
                  ------9. Panders- 9.5%
                  ------10. Serpents- 2%
                  ------11. Assamite- 2%
                  ------12. Other- 6%
                  ---C. Other- 20%

                  KINDRED AGE
                  ---A. Antideluvians- <!--coloro:#3333FF--><span style="color:#3333FF"><!--/coloro-->13exactly, count 'em
                  ---B. Methuselahs- less than 1%
                  ---C. Elders- 9%
                  ---D. Ancillae- 26%
                  ---E. Neonates- 58%
                  ---F. Fledglings- 6%
                  Last edited by Malkavian87; 01-20-2018, 02:54 PM.

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                  • #10
                    Well, I don't think you can get a canonical answer on this without making some assumptions and interpolations yourself. Here are the answers that I use when I run Vampire, and the reasoning behind them:

                    - There's a total population of 71-72 thousand vampires worldwide (counting Laibon as Kindred, but discounting Kuei-Jin). This is more or less canonical information.

                    - I assume that in general, vampires are at their most vulnerable while they are young, that mortality declines sharply with age, and (this is the big one) that vampire population growth patterns loosely follow those of humans throughout history. This gives us an age distribution heavily skewed toward the low end:

                    - In 2016, 86,5% of all vampires (or about 62 000) are less than 100 years old, due to the vast explosion in the human population leading to a correspondingly greater capacity to support a vampire population. In fact, starting from the year 2000, at least one third of all vampires in the world would be less than 25 years old. This casts the Time of Thin Blood in a rather interesting light, IMO.

                    - 11,15% of vampires (about 8000) are between 100 and 300 years old, ancillae.

                    -1,33% of vampires, that is to say no more than about 950 individuals, are between 300 and 1000 years old, real "elders". These would be the ones who remember the "good old days" before the Industrial Revolution, when vampires were far less numerous and each individual elder had correspondingly more sway over the neonates - from 1800 to 2000 the populations of both Kindred and kine skyrocketed and the number of neonates per elder more than doubled.

                    - Only 1,02% of vampires, about 730 individuals, are over 1000 years old and can be considered Methuselahs. This includes all of the Antedeluvians, and (if he was a historical person) Caine.

                    So, in summary, pretty rare!

                    The rates I used to generate the above numbers were as follows: 40% of all new vampires (notably discounting Sabbat shovelheads, only counting properly-fledged neonates) survive their first 100 years, 5% (of the total, not just of those who made it to 100) survive their first 300 years and 3% (of the total, again) make it to Methuselah. Methuselah die so rarely as to have an effective attrition rate of 0% -at least until the events of your chronicle say otherwise.

                    These ratios might seem high, but as you can see from the results above, iterative probability is a harsh mistress and the resulting numbers of elders and Methuselahs are in fact quite low.
                    Last edited by Schleiermacher; 01-20-2018, 02:50 PM.

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                    • #11
                      On the other hands some place have plenty of them. There are 5 Meth in Chicago, 4 in Berlin, 2 in D.C (maybe 3) and so on.
                      I would dare say that they are rare, but less rare than one would think. The real thing I think is that you don't see them. In Chicago only two Meth are known to the general public, in Berlin none, in DC only one and so on.

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                      • #12
                        I'd say Ancilla, Elders and Methuselahs are quite common, cause anyone who has been undead for a century or more is very good at surviving. In Kindred society its for the most part Neonates who do all the dying.

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                        • #13
                          Another thing to consider is that when talking about the elder titles, they can also refer to generation as well as physical age. A generation 5 sired in 550 B.C. and a generation 5 sired last week are both methuselahs, but only one is an elder.

                          ​It is an important concept to remember because a Generation 4 can wake up and decide to take the next step in their grand plan or just cause some havoc, which means embracing 100 new Generation 5 childer in a given year and after some basic training, lets them loose on the world. Alternatively the sire could have done a mass embrace, trained them to perfection, then commanded them all to torpor for a few centuries which means they fit both the definitions of methuselah.

                          ​Thus you can have the ratio's be completely thrown off very easily.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Undead rabbit View Post
                            On the other hands some place have plenty of them. There are 5 Meth in Chicago, 4 in Berlin, 2 in D.C (maybe 3) and so on.
                            I would dare say that they are rare, but less rare than one would think. The real thing I think is that you don't see them. In Chicago only two Meth are known to the general public, in Berlin none, in DC only one and so on.
                            Also add in the fact the Kindred do not expire like mortals, and have a tendency to vanish from the world, both through Torpor and by removing themselves from the spotlight as a matter of survival and I would imagine there are many, many, many more Elders and Methuselahs out there. Closer to 50% (or more) of the entire Cainite world population. It is largely going to be the Neonates with the high turnover rate, and Ancilla, still being mostly out in the open, are next in line to not make it to the next age group.


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                            • #15
                              That's a good point Beckett, in that its mainly young vampire's dying. Oh there would be elders who are betrayed, killed off etc but mainly its the young who get killed off. I don't think 50% would work well but at the same time I could see a fair few canites of a few centuries. More, with that number it gives some credence to the Anarchs views that there simply isn't enough room for young Vampire's to grow into, as you said its mainly the young who get killed off.

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