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Wraith population, Drone population.

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  • #16
    For Ends of Empire, it crops up on Page 37.

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    • #17
      Thanks... Still looking for the Wikia entry in question.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Ajax View Post
        Thanks... Still looking for the Wikia entry in question.


        the wikia entry is "wraith"

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        • #19
          The unsourced figure there is being derived from Ends of Empire as well.

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          • #20
            We actually have the numbers and we can hack together the data to get rough estimates. Ends of Empire says ~5% of people become Wraiths during peacetime, the lowest Willpower needed to become an Enfant rather than a Drone is 5 as per character creation rules, the Fog chart lists a breakdown of Willpower ratings by percent of population. We can then safely assume that persons with Willpower rated from 1 to 4 become Drones upon death, which gives a total of 63% of that initial ~5%. So a little over half of people that cross over become Drones.

            To put it quick and dirty: 100 people die; 5 of them become Wraiths; of those 5, 3 are Drones. 2 Wraiths/3 Drones for every 100 - again, during peacetime.

            As for Spectres, I would guess that Mortwrights and Haints are rare during times of relative peace, so rare as to be outliers. Wartime would see a substantial increase in their numbers specifically, however.

            Now to play with some numbers: an estimated ~150,000 people die per day in 2016. Not all of that is going to be under what could be considered peaceful circumstances, but let's just run with the numbers we have (and those other circumstances can account for the outliers). 5% of ~150,000 is ~7,500. That's our total estimate of new Wraiths per day. Then 63% of that are drones, so ~4725 new Drones every day, and ~2775 new Enfants every day. That's world-wide, of course. But still. Those are no small numbers when you start looking at the long-term - it's ~19,425 new Wraiths a week, ~1,010,100 new Wraiths a year, and ~33,075 Drones per week, ~1,719,900 Drones per year.

            Now, let's get into some really interesting stuff. Let's apply that 5% metric to all the people that ever lived (and not the currently-living). That's 5% of an estimated 100 billion. So the Underworld has seen, conservatively assumed, 5 billion souls pass through it. We don't have metrics and percentages for Transcendence (which I assume would be very small, maybe .5%, the same as Willpower 10 occurring naturally), or being soulforged (which I assume would be much, much higher - frighteningly so), or falling to Oblivion (either by becoming a Shade, or starting as a Mortwright/Haint), and 63% of that 5 billion become Drones, that still leaves ~1,850,000,000.

            One billion, eight-hundred and fifty-million Wraiths.

            If even a quarter of that are Stygian, that puts the Kingdom of Iron population at 462,500,000. To give it some context, that would put Stygia behind China and India, making it the third-largest nation by population.

            Cheers!


            If you don't use an Oxford comma, I feel bad for you, son,
            'Cuz I got ninety-nine problems, but clarity ain't one.

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            • #21
              Considering the amount of those numbers from infant mortality, you are positing a Shadowlands hip deep in dead babies.

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              • #22
                Originally posted by Ajax View Post
                Considering the amount of those numbers from infant mortality, you are positing a Shadowlands hip deep in dead babies.
                Ha! The image of having to wade through babies like an amusement park ball pit to get anything done... But no, pretty sure infant mortality falls under the 95% that don't become Wraiths.

                Cheers!


                If you don't use an Oxford comma, I feel bad for you, son,
                'Cuz I got ninety-nine problems, but clarity ain't one.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Then you need to factor that in at the start of your calculations, because the mortality rates you are citing don't take the demographic profile of infant mortality into account. Pre-industrial infant (and child) mortality was pretty unimaginable to modern people. In essence, the population figures you are STARTING with need to be reduced by infant mortality before you start applying your calculations. Speaking as someone who had to master paleodemography to get my Master's degree, the way you've done it, most wraiths and specters are babies. Because most of the humans that have ever lived died in infancy.

                  As to whether babies would fall under the 5 WP limit and those wraith babies are drones or whether babies are so willful they get full on wraith status is a judgment call. (Keening anyone?)

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Ajax View Post
                    Then you need to factor that in at the start of your calculations, because the mortality rates you are citing don't take the demographic profile of infant mortality into account. Pre-industrial infant (and child) mortality was pretty unimaginable to modern people. In essence, the population figures you are STARTING with need to be reduced by infant mortality before you start applying your calculations. Speaking as someone who had to master paleodemography to get my Master's degree, the way you've done it, most wraiths and specters are babies. Because most of the humans that have ever lived died in infancy.

                    As to whether babies would fall under the 5 WP limit and those wraith babies are drones or whether babies are so willful they get full on wraith status is a judgment call. (Keening anyone?)
                    I don't, actually, because I'm using averages and estimates to provide general numbers. If you want specifics, you're more than welcome to run the numbers yourself - but keep in mind, the highest estimated infant mortality rate in prehistory is something around 500 per 1000, or a little above - basically, 1 out of every 2. Even the pre-industrial rates only ever peaked about 170 per 1000, which is still negligible, because that's still a part of the larger 95% that don't become Wraiths. Using generalities, it's like this:

                    You have 100 people. They die.
                    5 of them become Wraiths. 95 of them don't.
                    Of that 95, 17 of them are babies.
                    This is fine for generalities.

                    I'm not doing "There's a hundred people, seventeen of them are babies, five percent of those who die become ghosts, so that means there's a (math vomit) chance of baby ghosts." I also didn't include estimates from wars, famines, natural disasters, and so on. I gave very, very conservative estimates, including pegging the "all dead, ever" to the beginning of agriculture, though in hindsight, I probably should have used the date for the inception of religion as a social institution (which would have been a little later, and given me smaller numbers).

                    And having raised a child, infants already have Keening. Oh god, do they.

                    Cheers!


                    If you don't use an Oxford comma, I feel bad for you, son,
                    'Cuz I got ninety-nine problems, but clarity ain't one.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Wraiths have been popping up since before 48,000BC so pegging it to the beginning of agriculture definitely doesn't work.

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by loomer View Post
                        Wraiths have been popping up since before 48,000BC so pegging it to the beginning of agriculture definitely doesn't work.
                        Yeah, again - very conservative estimates. Given the wonkiness of the World of Darkness' prehistory, I decided to go with about ~8000 BCE, the start of agriculture. The best line of demarcation would be when the Shroud fell - but that's just listed as "around the third maelstrom" (not the Third Great, because that would mean the Shroud didn't come into existence until the 1600's). Looking at other gamelines for inspiration, even Changeling's Sundering doesn't begin until about ~1000 BCE, much too late, as Charon came around ~1400 BCE, and the Shroud was already in place. Werewolf's Impergium and Vampire's Enoch both use "prehistoric" in their description, but detail agricultural societies. Using real-world sources, specifically the Epic of Gilgamesh, there was something Shroud-like in place in ~2100 BCE, since ghosts didn't regularly mingle with humans, and Enkidu had to find an "entrance" to the Underworld. Like most things White Wolf, the Shroud is probably tied to the Great Flood myth.

                        Cheers!


                        If you don't use an Oxford comma, I feel bad for you, son,
                        'Cuz I got ninety-nine problems, but clarity ain't one.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by nothing View Post

                          Yeah, again - very conservative estimates. Given the wonkiness of the World of Darkness' prehistory, I decided to go with about ~8000 BCE, the start of agriculture. The best line of demarcation would be when the Shroud fell - but that's just listed as "around the third maelstrom" (not the Third Great, because that would mean the Shroud didn't come into existence until the 1600's). Looking at other gamelines for inspiration, even Changeling's Sundering doesn't begin until about ~1000 BCE, much too late, as Charon came around ~1400 BCE, and the Shroud was already in place. Werewolf's Impergium and Vampire's Enoch both use "prehistoric" in their description, but detail agricultural societies. Using real-world sources, specifically the Epic of Gilgamesh, there was something Shroud-like in place in ~2100 BCE, since ghosts didn't regularly mingle with humans, and Enkidu had to find an "entrance" to the Underworld. Like most things White Wolf, the Shroud is probably tied to the Great Flood myth.

                          Cheers!
                          I think Caine is pegged at about 10,000 years old. As is the Lady of Fate in EoE. As the two oldest surviving (sort of) humans, that means your 8,000BC figure is about right.

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by nothing View Post

                            I don't, actually, because I'm using averages and estimates to provide general numbers. If you want specifics, you're more than welcome to run the numbers yourself - but keep in mind, the highest estimated infant mortality rate in prehistory is something around 500 per 1000, or a little above - basically, 1 out of every 2. Even the pre-industrial rates only ever peaked about 170 per 1000, which is still negligible, because that's still a part of the larger 95% that don't become Wraiths. Using generalities, it's like this:

                            You have 100 people. They die.
                            5 of them become Wraiths. 95 of them don't.
                            Of that 95, 17 of them are babies.
                            This is fine for generalities.

                            I'm not doing "There's a hundred people, seventeen of them are babies, five percent of those who die become ghosts, so that means there's a (math vomit) chance of baby ghosts." I also didn't include estimates from wars, famines, natural disasters, and so on. I gave very, very conservative estimates, including pegging the "all dead, ever" to the beginning of agriculture, though in hindsight, I probably should have used the date for the inception of religion as a social institution (which would have been a little later, and given me smaller numbers).

                            And having raised a child, infants already have Keening. Oh god, do they.

                            Cheers!
                            Look at a standard population distribution, or even better an actuarial table for a pre-industrial society. A HUGE chunk of the total numbers of human deaths have been of infants (though there is some lack of specificity in what that means.... how young is too young to be "wraith eligible"?) What you need to do is take that ~100 billion and knock off an appropriate percentage of the population who were never more than infants. THEN you have to take that 100% and take out an appropriate % for the number of people who were infants and therefore "wraith eligible" to begin with. You can use the pre-industrial demographic model for that too, as the industrial & modern models are just blips, so it's more than 17%.

                            The you can apply your model and get a more accurate read. The number will be substantially lower.

                            All of which seems like it's just math for math's sake, (And why not? Math is fun!) BUT, like most endeavors, it does illuminate other questions. How does falling to Oblivion (death for the dead) affect the overall numbers? Etc.

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                            • #29
                              Ajax You seem (morbidly?) obsessed with these infant mortality rates. I'll indulge one last time. Ends of Empire says 5% of all persons who die become Wraiths. This includes infants. Buried Secrets says infants, babies, and small children (basically under 5 years), do not become Wraiths. Therefore, infants are included in the 95% of all persons who die that do not become Wraiths. The mother that dies birthing a stillborn has a chance of becoming a Wraith, though the fetus never did. This makes sense with the psychological physics of the Underworld. Even accounting for a 50% average infant mortality rate, we're still talking about numbers in the millions and billions.

                              Cheers!


                              If you don't use an Oxford comma, I feel bad for you, son,
                              'Cuz I got ninety-nine problems, but clarity ain't one.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                in the case of caine.. he'd be older than 10000 years old. given that this is the minimum age of the antedilluvians.

                                given that spectres are not always the most intelligent or logical beings it's reasonable to assume that they outnumber wraiths.

                                sort like how in dnd the disorganised demons of the abyss outnumber the devils of the nine hells.

                                otherwise what is there to prevent the various dark kingdoms from literally annexing the labyrinth?

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