Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Wraith population, Drone population.

Collapse
X
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Faradn
    started a topic Wraith population, Drone population.

    Wraith population, Drone population.

    I did a search beforehand, but I apologize if this has been covered before.

    I always pictured the Wraith population as much higher than the other splats, not even counting Drones. I would go as high as one in 3,000, with about three times as many Drones at any given time (has a Wraith/Drone ratio been given?). Their interaction with normal humans is much less noticeable than that of other Awakened beings. There's the Dictum Mortuum, and the Shroud makes people forget interacting with them. Another thing is that Wraiths have a very well-developed and complex society compared to other splats. It's hard to have that level of organization and stratification with just a handful of souls.

  • loomer
    replied
    Originally posted by Dogstar View Post
    Further to this topic what is the Wraith/Drone survival rate per year? I'm assuming that the majority of Drones and Wraiths don't survive past their first year but are there are numbers anywhere?

    If not what would you guys estimate for first year, five years, ten years, etc?

    One in ten maybe?
    Unfortunately, having checked my data sets, Wraith's dataset has the least reliable 'age' at destruction figure because of the known Wraiths, very few have actually been definitely destroyed/managed to transcend (unless you count Orpheus, in which case, well, pretty much all of 'em have but that's unhelpful to say the least) and even less with a reliable date. The most frequent destruction seen in the books (other than forging) is being plunged into Oblivion after being torn apart but wraiths can, and regularly do, escape actual destruction during their Harrowings and may still reappear as Spectres. I think this is a question that will remain unanswered.

    Leave a comment:


  • Nail Eater
    replied
    Originally posted by Dogstar View Post
    Further to this topic what is the Wraith/Drone survival rate per year? I'm assuming that the majority of Drones and Wraiths don't survive past their first year but are there are numbers anywhere?

    If not what would you guys estimate for first year, five years, ten years, etc?

    One in ten maybe?
    I don't think that there's a general rule for that. But an interesting approach to that is by looking at the templates provided in Guildbooks because they are concepts for starting PCs = "young" wraiths. And there you have two wraiths at least century old (an Artificer and Pardonner (sin eater) I'm not sure about the latter; victims of epidemy, smallpox if I remember correctly), an actress who starred in silent movies (one of her Fetter is a token from Rudolf Valentino), Vietnam War casualty, secretary killed by KGB and that means before 1991, possibly way before and the rest or at least vast majority are modern.
    Last edited by Nail Eater; 02-26-2019, 06:10 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Ramnesis
    replied
    I don't recall hard numbers on this. When I ran a Drake's Equation on wraith population in another thread, though, I think I used 20 years as the average time a Wraith sticks around in the Underworld. If I were forced to choose an underworld expectancy for Drones, I'd probably put it in the 2-5 year range.

    Three things to consider:

    Much like life expectancy, Wraiths that last past their first year are much more likely to stick around for quite some time.

    Putting the expectancy too low for Wraiths means most of the longer lived wraiths aren't going to pay much attention to enfants as most of them will not stick around long enough to matter. (Potentially that's very in theme).

    Wr20 significantly changed the relationship of Wraiths and Drones. It is now vital for a new Wraith to be reaped early. Or vital for them to be reaped late if the reaper is looking to sell them as raw materials.

    Leave a comment:


  • Dogstar
    replied
    Further to this topic what is the Wraith/Drone survival rate per year? I'm assuming that the majority of Drones and Wraiths don't survive past their first year but are there are numbers anywhere?

    If not what would you guys estimate for first year, five years, ten years, etc?

    One in ten maybe?

    Leave a comment:


  • Nail Eater
    replied
    Originally posted by Dogstar View Post
    I think that to a certain extent you guys are looking at this backward. Rather than working out how many wraiths there are it might be more useful to determine the conversion rates based on what sort of populations a story teller would like - teeming/populous/'standard'/scarce/empty

    i.e. If I want a Shadowlands teeming with the dead what should I say the conversion rate is?

    Also, if I want fewer wartime deaths and more peacetime deaths (for example) how should I set or explain those rates?
    Well I believe it's up to ST to set those numbers. As golden rule says if you don't like it change it. I think that those numbers were provided by the creators on purpose, to satisfy D&d fans who like tables and numbers a lot .

    Leave a comment:


  • Dogstar
    replied
    I think that to a certain extent you guys are looking at this backward. Rather than working out how many wraiths there are it might be more useful to determine the conversion rates based on what sort of populations a story teller would like - teeming/populous/'standard'/scarce/empty

    i.e. If I want a Shadowlands teeming with the dead what should I say the conversion rate is?

    Also, if I want fewer wartime deaths and more peacetime deaths (for example) how should I set or explain those rates?

    Leave a comment:


  • Nail Eater
    replied
    Originally posted by nothing View Post
    We actually have the numbers and we can hack together the data to get rough estimates. Ends of Empire says ~5% of people become Wraiths during peacetime, the lowest Willpower needed to become an Enfant rather than a Drone is 5 as per character creation rules, the Fog chart lists a breakdown of Willpower ratings by percent of population. We can then safely assume that persons with Willpower rated from 1 to 4 become Drones upon death, which gives a total of 63% of that initial ~5%. So a little over half of people that cross over become Drones.

    To put it quick and dirty: 100 people die; 5 of them become Wraiths; of those 5, 3 are Drones. 2 Wraiths/3 Drones for every 100 - again, during peacetime.

    As for Spectres, I would guess that Mortwrights and Haints are rare during times of relative peace, so rare as to be outliers. Wartime would see a substantial increase in their numbers specifically, however.

    Now to play with some numbers: an estimated ~150,000 people die per day in 2016. Not all of that is going to be under what could be considered peaceful circumstances, but let's just run with the numbers we have (and those other circumstances can account for the outliers). 5% of ~150,000 is ~7,500. That's our total estimate of new Wraiths per day. Then 63% of that are drones, so ~4725 new Drones every day, and ~2775 new Enfants every day. That's world-wide, of course. But still. Those are no small numbers when you start looking at the long-term - it's ~19,425 new Wraiths a week, ~1,010,100 new Wraiths a year, and ~33,075 Drones per week, ~1,719,900 Drones per year.

    Now, let's get into some really interesting stuff. Let's apply that 5% metric to all the people that ever lived (and not the currently-living). That's 5% of an estimated 100 billion. So the Underworld has seen, conservatively assumed, 5 billion souls pass through it. We don't have metrics and percentages for Transcendence (which I assume would be very small, maybe .5%, the same as Willpower 10 occurring naturally), or being soulforged (which I assume would be much, much higher - frighteningly so), or falling to Oblivion (either by becoming a Shade, or starting as a Mortwright/Haint), and 63% of that 5 billion become Drones, that still leaves ~1,850,000,000.

    One billion, eight-hundred and fifty-million Wraiths.

    If even a quarter of that are Stygian, that puts the Kingdom of Iron population at 462,500,000. To give it some context, that would put Stygia behind China and India, making it the third-largest nation by population.

    Cheers!
    If I remember correctly only 10% of those, who ends up in Shadowlands become wraith. The rest ends in soulforges as drones or in the Oblivion. I can't remember where I 've read this, but it was propably in Buried Secrets. So if 150000 people die every day about 750 of them become wraiths.

    Leave a comment:


  • loomer
    replied
    As an addendum, 500,000 wraiths were reaped from the battle of Verdun. In our reality, Verdun saw a total of 300,000 dead This tells us two things - first, that either the devs couldn't do maths or that the battle was at least twice as bloody as it was in real life. Second, it provides us with an 'optimal' figure for the growth of wraiths under horrendous conditions. 1 in 2 participants in Verdun became a wraith - less, if the battle saw more men rather than a bloodier toll.

    The same source - the report of Scrivener Hiram of the Grim Legion (Great War (36)) - the Grim Legion had expanded by several million wraiths by the end of 1916. From a quick search about, something like 6.85 million men died between 1914 and 1916 on the Western Front. I don't have figures for the other fronts over the same period, but for the sake of a conservative estimate we'll bump it up to 10 million (jesus, I feel like Stalin - one death a tragedy, a million a statistic...) Low millions is the exact number given. For our purposes, we'll take a low end estimate of 2 million and a high of 4. This gives us either 1 in 5 or 1 in 2 1/2 deaths resulting in a wraith taken into the Legion, not including Drones, Spectres (of which we know many became), or those melted into tools, which could potentially see the number rise sharply.

    For a low-end purpose however, we can use the 1 in 5 figure as being fairly representative of particularly horrible circumstances and the number of sentient wraiths they produce, with a potential for it to rise even higher in events that transcend 'horrible' and slide straight into hell on earth territory. Couple it with the peacetime figure of 5%, and between 5 and 20% of human beings should have produced a wraith, though how many of those wraiths stuck around long or were forged is not yet determinable. If we take the average of 15%, then of the ~107 billion people to have ever lived, ~16 billion or should should have become a wraith - but that then falls into the trap of how many babbehs in that figure, which I don't have an answer for either at this time.

    Leave a comment:


  • loomer
    replied
    Looking at the files, the Jade Emperor's Imperial Army had 'millions' of soldiers. At the low end, that's 2 million. At the conservative high end, it's 10 millions (more than that goes into 'tens of millions', the non-conservative high end) so there must be at least one wraith for every 3,500 living humans for that number to be possible. At the conservative high end, it becomes 1:700. Let's make the assumption, for argument's sake, that's literally every wraith in the Jade Empire (it isn't, of course), that Necropolis London is the entire population of the Stygian shadowlands (it also isn't), and that the Kingdom of Ivory is equivalent in population. That gives us 12 million total wraiths active. That knocks the ratio down to 1:584. If we add in the Kingdoms of Wire, we necessarily need to add another million (Auschwitz is stated to be the largest Western necropolis. London has a population of one million. Thus, Auschwitz must possess more than one million wraiths, which fits with its lethality and 1.5 million death toll.) to knock it down to 1:540.

    Now let's get a little more liberal with it. 1 in 10 wraiths of the Empire is the usual figure for his army. It rises for the invasion that gave us the millions of soldiers line, so we'll put it at in in 4 to be somewhat conservative. At the low end, that makes it 8 million jade wraiths. At the conservative high end, 40 million.Without even factoring in the other kingdoms, we can arrive at a minimum figure of 1:875 and 1:175 respectively. Now, let's do the same thing for Stygia. We have no hard and fast population figures for Stygia's main holdings, but it seems reasonable to me to assume they're probably on an even footing with the Jade Empire as, though they lack the density of population Yu Huang can enjoy, they hold more territory. For the low end, let's make it so Stygia has a slight detriment and pop them at say, 6 million total wraiths (which would certainly make London a true world centre at 15% of the total population), and at the high end, we'll assume equivalency for another 40 million. Likewise for Africa - it has nearly as large a population to draw wraiths from, and the Ivory Kingdom's practices seem fairly conducive to keeping wraiths around for a while. We'll put it on par with Stygia (though unlike Stygia and the Jade Empire, they are not united into a single polity) so that puts us with a low-end figure of 20 million, and a high end figure of 120 million.

    Respectively, that puts us at 1:350 and 1:60, without even getting into the other dark kingdoms, spectres, or drone populations. Obviously, these numbers are speculative, but they're speculative using some of the best sources of information we have on the subject.

    Leave a comment:


  • nothing
    replied
    Ajax You're right - it's Lifeweb, not Usury. That's what I get for typing too fast.

    Cheers!

    Leave a comment:


  • Ajax
    replied
    Originally posted by nothing View Post
    Matt the Bruins fan They do, but it's also mentioned that wraiths can gain new Passions relating to the Underworld (and "weld" new temporary Fetters via Usury). So the ones that stick around tend to be the toughest, most stubborn ones. And when there's a million new wraiths a year, a percentage of that are going to find new ways to survive.

    Cheers!
    I don't have the books to hand, but isn't it the Monitors that can create temporary Fetters, not the Usurers?

    Leave a comment:


  • nothing
    replied
    Matt the Bruins fan They do, but it's also mentioned that wraiths can gain new Passions relating to the Underworld (and "weld" new temporary Fetters via Usury). So the ones that stick around tend to be the toughest, most stubborn ones. And when there's a million new wraiths a year, a percentage of that are going to find new ways to survive.

    Cheers!

    Leave a comment:


  • Matt the Bruins fan
    replied
    Don't most Wraiths have a somewhat short afterlife (in terms of historical time; maybe longer than their actual lives) before falling to the rigors of the underworld or their own internal psychological issues, with only the strongest and/or luckiest lasting multiple centuries? And aren't Spectres like mayflies in comparison, with few lasting more than a handful of years?

    Leave a comment:


  • Ajax
    replied
    Originally posted by nothing View Post
    Ajax I think I see what's going on. Forgive me, perhaps I wasn't clear in my initial post. The ~2 billion isn'tthe current population of the Underworld - it's how many autonomous Wraiths have existed in the Underworld, and it's on the conservative side. (Rereading my initial post, the last sentence does seem to imply that ~2 billion is the current number). I do mention your listed concerns in my initial post, actually:The whole exercise was meant to be an answer to the OP about Underworld societies' organization and structure ("[How do] Wraiths have a very well-developed and complex society compared to other splats[?] It's hard to have that level of organization and stratification with just a handful of souls." "There's been ~2 billion Wraiths over several millennia. They figured it out.")

    Plus, I thought the "morbidly" was fitting But really, Hm. We're having a conflation issue here, that started at the beginning of the thread. I'm not doing maths right now, but someone should run this - maybe something like "Total number of dead in 2015 compared to total number of living in 2015, then 5% of that."

    [USER="11683"]
    Aha! We were arguing two different but similar things from different directions with a significant degree of overlap in the boundary conditions.

    I still am not sure about how many Drones [sic OP] there are out there though... I don't know if our numerical calisthenics really touched on it. Either we're talking full-on wraiths and/or we're talking about population totals from which Drones and Wraith (and Specters) are derived. And the cultural factor of turning Drones into "stuff" complicates things to no end.

    I guess there are actually two questions?

    1) How many dead souls cross the Shroud as Drones as a factor of the total number of humans who die?
    2) How many Drones are there hanging around for PCs to meet?

    The latter seems likely to be a really low number. They might be seen wandering about if they self-Reap or Reapers know they've got a Drone when the breach the Caul (a standard Drone-dom test?), shackle the shambling thing up and trundle it off to the markets for sale to the Articifers and Moliators.. Which means most Drones are going to be seen in pens of moaning, thoughtless masses of ex-humanity in the process of being sold off...

    Leave a comment:

Working...
X