oWoD Dice Probability chart

[Wilson]

Thanks for this thread. I've done the math for all cases up to 20 dice, in an Excel spreadsheet. While it's true that the probability of a botch can go up in certain conditions, like at difficulty 9 when you go from 1 to 2 to 3 dice, at the same time the odds of success are rising faster, and there are no conditions where the odds of a botch are higher than or rising faster than the odds of a success. The odds of success, on the other hand, will always rise, in all cases, when you roll more dice. The absolute botch-happiest condition is when the difficulty is 10 and you're rolling 6 dice, but even at that point the odds of success are over 46% and the odds of a botch are under 27%.

Botch happens, but it's never likely.

[Kirintal]

Wooo I speak from the future!

To say. Thank you.

[Tux Kusanagi]

I have this problem with players i know saying ridiculous things like "the more dice i roll, the higher the likelihood i'll fail or botch" and every time i hear it my brain breaks a little. They came from a group who play OWOD with NWOD 1's rules. This is spectacular.

[theoutlander523]

I got one better for you. Here's a small program that will calculate dice pools for up about ~15 dice. It can do more but it will take a long while, too lazy to switch to another language. This uses an equation to calculate chances. No estimations.

http://www.mediafire.com/download/ik84jhphnj3cojy/Dicerollcalculator.exe

[Ambrosia]

That was the intention behind it
It's more often than not the storyteller who struggles to figure out how demanding or easy a certain roll might be, and might have trouble getting just the right challenge set up for a task.

Glad you like it!

[kalinara]

Oh! I can see this being very useful when I'm assigning difficulty to specific tasks. Thank you!

[Ambrosia]

Ohai,

Created with the little application I mentioned here, this is a spreadsheet chart of WoD dice success, failure and botch probability percentages, along with the average successes per roll:

Spreadsheet Link

The format is Success% / Failure% / Botch% (avg. successes)

I hope some find it to be of use. The percentages are somewhat rounded to the first decimal, and are all based on the averages of 100-million rolls per difficulty and dice amount. Difficulty goes up to 9. The second table beneath the first is for specialty-rolls.

The spreadsheet is color-coded to highlight the most common difficulty and dice amounts, as well as the 10-dice barrier.

Enjoy!